Background

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic compounds Mexico's pre-existing challenges: very high levels of both non-communicable diseases (NCD) and social inequity.

Methods and findings

Using data from national reporting of SARS-CoV-2 tested individuals, we estimated odds of hospitalization, intubation, and death based on pre-existing non-communicable diseases and socioeconomic indicators. We found that obesity, diabetes, and hypertension are positively associated with the three outcomes in a synergistic manner. The municipal poverty level is also positively associated with hospitalization and death.

Conclusions

Mexico's response to COVID-19 is complicated by a synergistic double challenge: raging NCDs and extreme social inequity. The response to the current pandemic must take both into account both to be effective and to ensure that the burden of COVID-19 not falls disproportionately on those who are already disadvantaged.

Background

India has an estimated 2.0 million to 3.1 million people living with HIV; it has the highest number of HIV-positive people in Asia and ranks third in the world. The Frontiers Prevention Project (FPP) was implemented in 2002 to conduct targeted prevention intervention geared towards female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM) in the state of Andhra Pradesh (AP). This paper reports the overall changes in behaviour and STI outcomes between 2003/4 and 2007 and also describes the changes attributed to the FPP.

Methods

The evaluation used two cross-sectional surveys among MSM and FSW at 24 sites in AP. Surveys were implemented using a similar methodology. Univariate analyses were conducted by comparing means: baseline vs. four-year follow-up and FPP vs. non-FPP. For both MSM and FSW, random and fixed-effects logit regression models at the site level were estimated for condom use with last partner, syphilis sero-positivity and HSV 2 sero-positivity. In addition, for FSW we estimated models for condom use with regular partner, and for MSM we estimated models for condom use with last female partner.

Results

Among MSM, fixed-effects analysis revealed that FPP was positively correlated with the probability of condom use with last female sexual partner and negatively correlated with the individual probability of sero-positivity to syphilis and HSV 2. Among FSW, the FPP intervention was significantly correlated with increased condom use with regular partners and with lower probability of STI sero-positivity.

Discussion

Important changes in behaviours related to an increase in prevention activities translated to reductions in STI sero-prevalence in AP, India. In contrast with non-FPP sites, the FPP sites experienced an intense community approach as part of the FPP intervention, and the general increase in condom use and its effect on STI sero-prevalence reflected the efficacy of these intense prevention activities focused on key populations in AP.

Background

In developing countries rotavirus is the leading cause of severe diarrhoea and diarrhoeal deaths in children under 5. Vaccination could greatly alleviate that burden, but in Mexico as in most low- and middle-income countries the decision to add rotavirus vaccine to the national immunisation program will depend heavily on its cost-effectiveness and affordability. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of including the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine in Mexico's national immunisation program.

Methods

A cost-effectiveness model was developed from the perspective of the health system, modelling the vaccination of a hypothetical birth cohort of 2 million children monitored from birth through 60 months of age. It compares the cost and disease burden of rotavirus in an unvaccinated cohort of children with one vaccinated as recommended at 2, 4, and 6 months.

Results

Including the pentavalent vaccine in the national immunisation program could prevent 71,464 medical visits (59%), 5,040 hospital admissions (66%), and 612 deaths from rotavirus gastroenteritis (70%). At US$10 per dose and a cost of administration of US$13.70 per 3-dose regimen, vaccination would cost US$122,058 per death prevented, US$4,383 per discounted life-year saved, at a total net cost of US$74.7 million dollars to the health care system. Key variables influencing the results were, in order of importance, case fatality, vaccine price, vaccine efficacy, serotype prevalence, and annual loss of efficacy. The results are also very sensitive to the discount rate assumed when calculated per life-year saved.

Conclusion

At prices below US $15 per dose, the cost per life-year saved is estimated to be lower than one GNP per capita and hence highly cost effective by the WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health criteria. The cost-effectiveness estimates are highly dependent upon the mortality in the absence of the vaccine, which suggests that the vaccine is likely to be significantly more cost-effective among poorer populations and among those with less access to prompt medical care - such that poverty reduction programs would be expected to reduce the future cost-effectiveness of the vaccine.

Objectives

We aim to quantify shifts in hospitalisation and mortality and how those were related to the first three phases of the epidemic and individuals' demographics and health profile among those with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 treated at the Mexican Social Security Institute's facilities from March 2020 to October 2021.

Design

Retrospective observational study using interrupted time series analysis to identify changes in hospitalisation rate and case fatality rate (CFR) by epidemic wave.

Setting

Data from the Mexican Institute of Social Security's (IMSS) Online Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance System (SINOLAVE) that include all individuals that sought care at IMSS facilities all over Mexico.

Participants

All individuals included in the SINOLAVE with a positive PCR or rapid test for SARS-CoV-2.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

Monthly test positivity rates, hospitalisation rates, CFRs and prevalence of relevant comorbidities by age group.

Results

From March 2020 to October 2021, the CFR declined between 1% and 3.5%; the declines were significant for those 0-9, 20-29, 30-39, 40-49 and 70 and older. The decline was steep during the first wave and was less steep or was temporarily reversed at the beginning of the second and third waves (changes in the trend of about 0.3% and 3.8%, and between 0.7% and 3.8%, respectively, for some age groups), but then continued to the end of the analytical period. Prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and obesity among patients testing positive also declined-two for most age groups (reductions of up to 10 percentage points for diabetes, 12 percentage points for hypertension and 19 percentage points for obesity).

Conclusion

Data suggest that the decrease in COVID-19 fatality rate is at least partially explained by a change in the profile of those contracting the disease, that is, a falling proportion of individuals with comorbidities across all age groups.

Background

In Ecuador, the prevalence of HIV in the general population is approximately 0.3%. However, up to 17% prevalence has been reported among specific groups of homosexual and bisexual men. The objective of this study is to explore correlates of condom use among men who have sex with men (MSM) across eight cities in Ecuador.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey design was used. A questionnaire including variables on sexual behaviour, demographics, and socio-economic characteristics was distributed to a sample of MSM in eight Ecuadorian cities.

Results

Information was obtained for 2,594 MSM across the eight cities. The largest subcategory of self-identification was active bisexuals (35%), followed by those who described themselves as "hombrados" (masculine gays, 22%). The mean age was 25 years, and the majority were unmarried (78%), with a median of 10 years of schooling (IQR 7 - 12). Regarding condom use, 55% of those interviewed had unprotected penetrative sex with each of their last three partners, and almost 25% had never used a condom. The most important correlates of condom use were single status, high life-skills rating, and high socio-economic status (RP 5.45, 95% CI 4.26 - 6.37; RP 1.84, 95% CI 1.79 - 1.86, and RP 1.20, 95% CI 1.01 - 1.31, respectively).

Conclusion

Our data illustrate the urgent need for targeted HIV-prevention programs for MSM populations in Ecuador. MSM have the highest HIV prevalence in the country, and condom use is extremely low. It is imperative that prevention strategies be re-evaluated and re-prioritized to more effectively respond to the Ecuadorian epidemic.

Background

Due to the fact that adolescents are more likely to participate in high-risk behaviors, this sector of the population is particularly vulnerable to contracting sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and resultant health problems.

Methods

A survey was carried out among adolescents from poor homes in 204 small-urban areas of Mexico. Information was collected in relation to risk behaviors and socio-economic environment. A sub-group of the participants also provided blood and urine samples which were analyzed to detect sexually transmitted infections.

Results

The presence of Chlamydia was detected in nearly 8% of participants who had stated that they were sexually active (18%) and approximately 12% were positive for herpes type 2-specific antibodies. For both, a greater proportion of girls resulted positive compared to boys. The presence of these biological outcomes of sexual risk behavior was associated with other risk behaviors (smoking), but not with self-reported indicators of protected sex (reported use of condom during most recent sexual activity).

Conclusion

The results presented in this study show a startlingly high prevalence of HSV-2 among sexually active Mexican adolescents in poor urban areas, suggesting that this group has participated to a great extent in risky sexual practices. The relationships between socioeconomic environment and adolescent risk behavior need to be better understood if we are to design preventive interventions that modify the determinants of risk behaviors.

Background

HIV prevention in India has mostly focussed on heterosexual transmission. Data on homosexual transmission are not readily available from India. We therefore assessed the probability of acquiring and transmitting HIV for men who sell sex to men and compared this with women who sell sex in India.

Methods

Sexual behaviour characteristics of 6661 men who have sex with men and 6648 women who sell sex were obtained in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh through confidential interviews. These, along with estimates of HIV rates among them and risk of HIV transmission per unprotected sex act from other sources, were used to calculate their annual probability of acquiring and transmitting HIV.

Results

Of 6661 men who have sex with men in this sample, 1776 (26.7%) had sold sex to men. For every 1000 men who sell sex to men, annually 146 (95% confidence interval [CI] 116-179) would acquire HIV and HIV would be transmitted to 55 (95% CI 42-71) men who do not sell sex or women. These estimates were higher by 6.7 (95% CI 4.9-9.2) times for acquiring HIV and 2.5 (95% CI 2.0-3.2) times for transmitting HIV to sex partners outside their group, as compared with similar estimates for women who sell sex. In this sample, the average annual probability of acquiring HIV was higher among men who have sex with men but do not sell sex as compared with women who sell sex.

Conclusion

These data indicate that men who sell sex to men are at much higher risk of acquiring and transmitting HIV than women who sell sex. Therefore, men who sell sex to men and their clients warrant substantial attention for comprehensive HIV prevention in India.

Background

Timely monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variants is crucial to effectively managing both prevention and treatment efforts. In this paper, we aim to describe demographic and clinical patterns of individuals with COVID-19-like symptoms during the first three epidemic waves in Mexico to identify changes in those patterns that may reflect differences determined by virus variants.

Methods

We conducted a descriptive analysis of a large database containing records for all individuals who sought care at the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) due to COVID-19-like symptoms from March 2020 to October 2021 (4.48 million records). We described the clinical and demographic profile of individuals tested (3.38 million, 32% with PCR and 68% with rapid test) by test result (positives and negatives) and untested, and among those tested, and the changes in those profiles across the first three epidemic waves.

Results

Individuals with COVID-19-like symptoms were older in the first wave and younger in the third one (the mean age for those positive was 46.6 in the first wave and 36.1 in the third wave; for negatives and not-tested, the mean age was 41 and 38.5 in the first wave and 34.3 and 33.5 in the third wave). As the pandemic progressed, an increasing number of individuals sought care for suspected COVID-19. The positivity rate decreased over time but remained well over the recommended 5%. The pattern of presenting symptoms changed over time, with some of those symptoms decreasing over time (dyspnea 40.6 to 14.0%, cough 80.4 to 76.2%, fever 77.5 to 65.2%, headache 80.3 to 78.5%), and some increasing (odynophagia 48.7 to 58.5%, rhinorrhea 28.6 to 47.5%, anosmia 11.8 to 23.2%, dysgeusia 11.2 to 23.2%).

Conclusion

During epidemic surges, the general consensus was that any individual presenting with respiratory symptoms was a suspected COVID-19 case. However, symptoms and signs are dynamic, with clinical patterns changing not only with the evolution of the virus but also with demographic changes in the affected population. A better understanding of these changing patterns is needed to improve preparedness for future surges and pandemics.

Background

The majority of sex work in India is clandestine due to unfavorable legal environment and discrimination against female sex workers (FSWs). We report data on who these women are and when they get involved with sex work that could assist in increasing the reach of HIV prevention activities for them.

Methods

Detailed documentation of demography and various aspects of sex work was done through confidential interviews of 6648 FSWs in 13 districts in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The demography of FSWs was compared with that of women in the general population.

Results

A total of 5010 (75.4%), 1499 (22.5%), and 139 (2.1%) street-, home-, and brothel-based FSWs, respectively, participated. Comparison with women of Andhra Pradesh revealed that the proportion of those aged 20-34 years (75.6%), belonging to scheduled caste (35.3%) and scheduled tribe (10.5%), illiterate (74.7%), and of those separated/divorced (30.7%) was higher among FSWs (p < 0.001). The FSWs engaged in sex work for >5 years were more likely to be non-street-based FSWs, illiterate, living in small urban towns, and to have started sex work between 12-15 years of age. The mean age at starting sex work (21.7 years) and gap between the first vaginal intercourse and the first sexual intercourse in exchange for money (6.6 years) was lower for FSWs in the rural areas as compared with those in large urban areas (23.9 years and 8.8 years, respectively).

Conclusion

These data highlight that women struggling with illiteracy, lower social status, and less economic opportunities are especially vulnerable to being infected by HIV, as sex work may be one of the few options available to them to earn money. Recommendations for actions are made for long-term impact on reducing the numbers of women being infected by HIV in addition to the current HIV prevention efforts in India.

Background

Heterosexual contact is the most common mode of HIV transmission in India that is largely linked to sex work. We assessed the non-use of condoms in sex work and with regular sex partners by female sex workers (FSWs), and identified its associations that could assist in planning HIV prevention programmes.

Methods

Detailed documentation of various aspects of sex work, and sexual behaviour with regular sex partners, was done through confidential interviews for 6,648 FSWs in 13 districts in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. Multivariate analysis was done to understand condom non-use with clients.

Results

5,010 (75.4%), 1,499 (22.5%), and 139 (2.1%) FSWs were street-, home-, and brothel-based, respectively. Of the total 6,648 FSWs, 6,165 (92.7%) had penetrative vaginal/anal sex with at least one client in the last 15 days, and of these 2,907 (47.2%; 95% CI 41.2-53.2%) reported non-use of condom with at least one of her last three clients. Lack of knowledge that HIV could be prevented (odds ratio 5.01; 95% CI 4.38-5.73), no access to free condoms (odds ratio 3.45; 95% CI 2.99-3.98), being street-based as compared with brothel-based (odds ratio 3.36; 95% CI 1.87-6.04), and no participation in FSW support groups (odds ratio 2.02; 95% CI 1.50-2.70) were the most significant predictors of condom non-use with clients. Other associations included lower social support, lower income, age >24 years, illiteracy, and living in medium-size urban or rural areas. Of the 2582 who had penetrative sex with regular sex partner within the last 7 days, 2428 (94%; 95% CI 92.1-95.9%) had not used condom at last sex, and 1032 (41.8%) had neither used condom consistently with clients nor with regular sex partner.

Conclusion

About half the FSWs do not use condom consistently with their clients in this Indian state putting them at high risk of HIV infection. Non-brothel-based FSWs, who form the majority of sex workers in India, were at a significantly higher risk of HIV infection as compared with brothel-based FSWs. With their high vulnerability, the success of expansion of HIV prevention efforts will depend on achieving and sustaining an environment that enables HIV prevention with the non-brothel based FSWs.