The Earth's ecosystems have been altered by anthropogenic processes, including land use, harvesting populations, species introductions and climate change. These anthropogenic processes greatly alter plant and animal communities, thereby changing transmission of the zoonotic pathogens they carry. Biodiversity conservation may be a potential win-win strategy for maintaining ecosystem health and protecting public health, yet the causal evidence to support this strategy is limited. Evaluating conservation as a viable public health intervention requires answering four questions: (i) Is there a general and causal relationship between biodiversity and pathogen transmission, and if so, which direction is it in? (ii) Does increased pathogen diversity with increased host biodiversity result in an increase in total disease burden? (iii) Do the net benefits of biodiversity conservation to human well-being outweigh the benefits that biodiversity-degrading activities, such as agriculture and resource utilization, provide? (iv) Are biodiversity conservation interventions cost-effective when compared to other options employed in standard public health approaches? Here, we summarize current knowledge on biodiversity-zoonotic disease relationships and outline a research plan to address the gaps in our understanding for each of these four questions. Developing practical and self-sustaining biodiversity conservation interventions will require significant investment in disease ecology research to determine when and where they will be effective.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

In the western United States, Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls (Acari: Ixodidae) is the primary vector of the agents causing Lyme disease and granulocytic anaplasmosis in humans. The geographic distribution of the tick is associated with climatic variables that include temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and biotic factors such as the spatial distribution of its primary vertebrate hosts. Here, we explore (1) how climate change may alter the geographic distribution of I. pacificus in California, USA, during the 21^st century, and (2) the spatial overlap among predicted changes in tick habitat suitability, land access, and ownership. Maps of potential future suitability for I. pacificus were generated by applying climate-based species distribution models to a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate emission) and 8.5 (high emission) scenarios for two future periods: mid-century (2026-2045) and end-of-century (2086-2099). Areas climatically-suitable for I. pacificus are projected to expand by 23% (mid-century RCP 4.5) to 86% (end-of-century RCP 8.5) across California, compared to the historical period (1980-2014), with future estimates of total suitable land area ranging from about 88 to 133 thousand km², or up to about a third of California. Regions projected to have the largest area increases in suitability by end-of-century are in northwestern California and the south central and southern coastal ranges. Over a third of the future suitable habitat is on lands currently designated as open access (i.e. publicly available), and by 2100, the amount of these lands that are suitable habitat for I. pacificus is projected to more than double under the most extreme emissions scenario (from ~23,000 to >51,000 km²). Of this area, most is federally-owned (>45,000 km²). By the end of the century, 26% of all federal land in the state is predicted to be suitable habitat for I. pacificus. The resulting maps may facilitate regional planning and preparedness by informing public health and vector control decision-makers.

Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls (Acari: Ixodidae), the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes to humans in the far-western United States, is broadly distributed across Pacific Coast states, but its distribution is not uniform within this large, ecologically diverse region. To identify areas of suitable habitat, we assembled records of locations throughout California where two or more I. pacificus were collected from vegetation from 1980 to 2014. We then employed ensemble species distribution modeling to identify suitable climatic conditions for the tick and restricted the results to land cover classes where these ticks are typically encountered (i.e., forest, grass, scrub-shrub, riparian). Cold-season temperature and rainfall are particularly important abiotic drivers of suitability, explaining between 50 and 99% of the spatial variability across California among models. The likelihood of an area being classified as suitable increases steadily with increasing temperatures >0°C during the coldest quarter of the year, and further increases when precipitation amounts range from 400 to 800 mm during the coldest quarter, indicating that areas in California with relatively warm and wet winters typically are most suitable for I. pacificus. Other consistent predictors of suitability include increasing autumn humidity, temperatures in the warmest month between 23 and 33°C, and low-temperature variability throughout the year. The resultant climatic suitability maps indicate that coastal California, especially the northern coast, and the western Sierra Nevada foothills have the highest probability of I. pacificus presence.