As the climate warms, species that cannot tolerate changing conditions will only persist if they undergo range shifts. Redistribution ability may be particularly variable for benthic marine species that disperse as pelagic larvae in ocean currents. The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, has recently experienced a warming-related range contraction in the southeastern USA and may face limitations to northward range shifts within the Gulf of Maine where dominant coastal currents flow southward. Thus, blue mussels might be especially vulnerable to warming, and understanding dispersal patterns is crucial given the species' relatively long planktonic larval period (>1 month). To determine whether trace elemental "fingerprints" incorporated in mussel shells could be used to identify population sources (i.e. collection locations), we assessed the geographic variation in shell chemistry of blue mussels collected from seven populations between Cape Cod, Massachusetts and northern Maine. Across this ∼500 km of coastline, we were able to successfully predict population sources for over two-thirds of juvenile individuals, with almost 80% of juveniles classified within one site of their collection location and 97% correctly classified to region. These results indicate that significant differences in elemental signatures of mussel shells exist between open-coast sites separated by ∼50 km throughout the Gulf of Maine. Our findings suggest that elemental "fingerprinting" is a promising approach for predicting redistribution potential of the blue mussel, an ecologically and economically important species in the region.

The earth is in the midst of a biodiversity crisis, and projections indicate continuing and accelerating rates of global changes. Future alterations in communities and ecosystems may be precipitated by changes in the abundance of strongly interacting species, whose disappearance can lead to profound changes in abundance of other species, including an increase in extinction rate for some. Nearshore coastal communities are often dependent on the habitat and food resources provided by foundational plant (e.g., kelp) and animal (e.g., shellfish) species. We quantified changes in the abundance of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), a foundation species known to influence diversity and productivity of intertidal habitats, over the past 40 years in the Gulf of Maine, USA, one of the fastest warming regions in the global ocean. Using consistent survey methods, we compared contemporary population sizes to historical data from sites spanning >400 km. The results of these comparisons showed that blue mussels have declined in the Gulf of Maine by >60% (range: 29-100%) at the site level since the earliest benchmarks in the 1970s. At the same time as mussels declined, community composition shifted: at the four sites with historical community data, the sessile community became increasingly algal dominated. Contemporary (2013-2014) surveys across 20 sites showed that sessile species richness was positively correlated to mussel abundance in mid to high intertidal zones. These results suggest that declines in a critical foundation species may have already impacted the intertidal community. To inform future conservation efforts, we provide a database of historical and contemporary baselines of mussel population abundance and dynamics in the Gulf of Maine. Our results underscore the importance of anticipating not only changes in diversity but also changes in the abundance and identity of component species, as strong interactors like foundation species have the potential to drive cascading community shifts.