Skip to main content
eScholarship
Open Access Publications from the University of California

Scholarly Works (2 results)

  • Article
Department of Statistics Papers (2001)

Writers are often viewed as having an inherent style which can serve as a literary fingerprint. By quantifying relevant features related to literary style, one may hope to classify written works and even attribute authorship to newly discovered texts. Beyond its intrinsic interest, the study of literary styles presents the opportunity to introduce and motivate many standard multivariate statistical techniques. Today the statistical analysis of literary styles is made much simpler by the wealth of real data readily available from the Internet. This paper presents an overview and brief history of the analysis of literary styles. In addition we use canonical discriminant analysis and principal component analysis to identify structure in the data and distinguish authorship.

    Cover page: Quantitative Analysis of Literary Styles
    • Article
    • Peer Reviewed

    Background

    Emerging pathogens such as Zika, chikungunya, Ebola, and dengue viruses are serious threats to national and global health security. Accurate forecasts of emerging epidemics and their severity are critical to minimizing subsequent mortality, morbidity, and economic loss. The recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika virus to the Americas underscores the need for better methods for disease surveillance and forecasting.

    Methods

    To explore the suitability of current approaches to forecasting emerging diseases, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) launched the 2014-2015 DARPA Chikungunya Challenge to forecast the number of cases and spread of chikungunya disease in the Americas. Challenge participants (n=38 during final evaluation) provided predictions of chikungunya epidemics across the Americas for a six-month period, from September 1, 2014 to February 16, 2015, to be evaluated by comparison with incidence data reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). This manuscript presents an overview of the challenge and a summary of the approaches used by the winners.

    Results

    Participant submissions were evaluated by a team of non-competing government subject matter experts based on numerical accuracy and methodology. Although this manuscript does not include in-depth analyses of the results, cursory analyses suggest that simpler models appear to outperform more complex approaches that included, for example, demographic information and transportation dynamics, due to the reporting biases, which can be implicitly captured in statistical models. Mosquito-dynamics, population specific information, and dengue-specific information correlated best with prediction accuracy.

    Conclusion

    We conclude that with careful consideration and understanding of the relative advantages and disadvantages of particular methods, implementation of an effective prediction system is feasible. However, there is a need to improve the quality of the data in order to more accurately predict the course of epidemics.
      Cover page: Summary results of the 2014-2015 DARPA Chikungunya challengeCreative Commons 'BY' version 4.0 license
      Top