Many large-bodied marine fishes that form spawning aggregations, such as the Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), have suffered regional overfishing due to exploitation during spawning. In response, marine resource managers in many locations have established marine protected areas or seasonal closures to recover these overfished stocks. The challenge in assessing management effectiveness lies largely in the development of accurate estimates to track stock size through time. For the past 15 y, the Cayman Islands government has taken a series of management actions aimed at recovering collapsed stocks of Nassau grouper. Importantly, the government also partnered with academic and nonprofit organizations to establish a research and monitoring program (Grouper Moon) aimed at documenting the impacts of conservation action. Here, we develop an integrated population model of 2 Cayman Nassau grouper stocks based on both diver-collected mark-resight observations and video censuses. Using both data types across multiple years, we fit parameters for a state-space model for population growth. We show that over the last 15 y the Nassau grouper population on Little Cayman has more than tripled in response to conservation efforts. Census data from Cayman Brac, while more sparse, show a similar pattern. These findings demonstrate that spatial and seasonal closures aimed at rebuilding aggregation-based fisheries can foster conservation success.

Dispersal of eggs and larvae from spawning sites is critical to the population dynamics and conservation of marine fishes. For overfished species like critically endangered Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), recovery depends on the fate of eggs spawned at the few remaining aggregation sites. Biophysical models can predict larval dispersal, yet these rely on assumed values of key parameters, such as diffusion and mortality rates, which have historically been difficult or impossible to estimate. We used in situ imaging to record three-dimensional positions of individual eggs and larvae in proximity to oceanographic drifters released into egg plumes from the largest known Nassau grouper spawning aggregation. We then estimated a diffusion-mortality model and applied it to previous years drifter tracks to evaluate the possibility of retention versus export to nearby sites within 5 days of spawning. Results indicate that larvae were retained locally in 2011 and 2017, with 2011 recruitment being a substantial driver of population recovery on Little Cayman. Export to a nearby island with a depleted population occurred in 2016. After two decades of protection, the population appears to be self-replenishing but also capable of seeding recruitment in the region, supporting calls to incorporate spawning aggregation protections into fisheries management.

To address patterns of genetic connectivity in a mass-aggregating marine fish, we analyzed genetic variation in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), microsatellites, and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus). We expected Nassau grouper to exhibit genetic differentiation among its subpopulations due to its reproductive behavior and retentive oceanographic conditions experienced across the Caribbean basin. All samples were genotyped for two mitochondrial markers and 9 microsatellite loci, and a subset of samples were genotyped for 4,234 SNPs. We found evidence of genetic differentiation in a Caribbean-wide study of this mass-aggregating marine fish using mtDNA (FST = 0.206, p<0.001), microsatellites (FST = 0.002, p = 0.004) and SNPs (FST = 0.002, p = 0.014), and identified three potential barriers to larval dispersal. Genetically isolated regions identified in our work mirror those seen for other invertebrate and fish species in the Caribbean basin. Oceanographic regimes in the Caribbean may largely explain patterns of genetic differentiation among Nassau grouper subpopulations. Regional patterns observed warrant standardization of fisheries management and conservation initiatives among countries within genetically isolated regions.