Introduction

To end the HIV epidemic, HIV prevention and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) promotion efforts must reach young men who have sex with men (YMSM) at greatest risk for HIV. This study qualitatively explored whether common metrics used by clinicians, scientists, and public health officials to objectively assess HIV risk align with how YMSM conceptualize their risk for HIV and the factors that shape YMSM's risk perceptions.

Methods

Interviews with a racially/ethnically diverse sample of HIV-negative YMSM (ages 19-24 years, 60% Latinx; n = 20) examined conceptualizations of HIV risk within the context of repeat HIV testing. Iterative, applied thematic analysis examined how participants conceptualized and constructed their HIV risk, and compared participants' descriptions of their risk with a validated quantitative assessment of HIV risk that reliably predicts HIV seroconversion in this group.

Results

Objective quantitative assessments of HIV risk poorly aligned with participants' perceived HIV risk. Participants described their current risk in relative terms (relative to past risk and relative to friends'/peers' risk) and described age/developmental stage and changes in knowledge about HIV prevention as key factors in risk changes over time. Other factors included substance use and trust/mistrust in sexual partners and scientific advances in HIV prevention (eg, U = U and PrEP). Factors that influenced participants' perceived HIV risk were similar regardless of objective risk assessment.

Conclusions

Quantitative assessments of risk may poorly align with risk perception among YMSM. Although objective metrics can effectively target YMSM at greatest risk for HIV transmission, interventions to improve prevention behaviors and PrEP uptake may be more effective when tailored to bridge the disconnection between objective HIV risk assessments and YMSM's constructions of risk.

Problem

Receptive anal intercourse (RAI) is more efficient than receptive vaginal intercourse (RVI) at transmitting HIV, but its contribution to heterosexually acquired HIV infections among at-risk women in the USA is unclear.

Method of study

We analysed sexual behaviour data from surveys of 9152 low-income heterosexual women living in 20 cities with high rates of HIV conducted in 2010 and 2013 as part of US National HIV Behavioral Surveillance. We estimated RAI prevalence (past-year RAI) and RAI fraction (fraction of all sex acts (RVI and RAI) at the last sexual episode that were RAI among those reporting past-year RAI) overall and by key demographic characteristics. These results and HIV incidence were used to calibrate a risk equation model to estimate the population attributable fraction of new HIV infections due to RAI (PAF_RAI ) accounting for uncertainty in parameter assumptions.

Results

Receptive anal intercourse prevalence (overall: 32%, city range: 19%-60%) and RAI fraction (overall: 27%, city range: 18%-34%) were high overall and across cities, and positively associated with exchange sex. RAI accounted for an estimated 41% (uncertainty range: 18%-55%) of new infections overall (city range: 21%-57%). Variability in PAF_RAI estimates was most influenced by uncertainty in the estimate of the per-act increased risk of RAI relative to RVI and the number of sex acts.

Conclusion

Receptive anal intercourse may contribute disproportionately to new heterosexually acquired HIV infections among at-risk low-income women in the USA, meaning that tools to prevent HIV transmission during RAI are warranted. The number of RVI and RAI acts should also be collected to monitor heterosexually acquired HIV infections.