Fires are a global phenomenon that impact climate and biogeochemical cycles, and interact with the biosphere, atmosphere and cryosphere. These impacts occur on a range of temporal and spatial scales and are difficult to quantify globally based solely on observations. Here we assess the role of fires in the climate system using model estimates of radiative forcing (RF) from global fires in pre-industrial, present day, and future time periods. Fire emissions of trace gases and aerosols are derived from Community Land Model simulations and then used in a series of Community Atmosphere Model simulations with representative emissions from the years 1850, 2000, and 2100. Additional simulations are carried out with fire emissions from the Global Fire Emission Database for a present-day comparison. These results are compared against the results of simulations with no fire emissions to compute the contribution from fires. We consider the impacts of fire on greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects (including aerosol effects on biogeochemical cycles), and land and snow surface albedo. Overall, we estimate that pre-industrial fires were responsible for a RF of −1 W m⁻² with respect to a pre-industrial climate without fires. The largest magnitude pre-industrial forcing from fires was the indirect aerosol effect on clouds (−1.6 W m⁻²). This was balanced in part by an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations due to fires (+0.83 W m⁻²). The RF of fires increases by 0.5 W m⁻² from 1850 to 2000 and 0.2 W m⁻² from 1850 to 2100 in the model representation from a combination of changes in fire activity and changes in the background environment in which fires occur, especially increases and decreases in the anthropogenic aerosol burden. Thus, fires play an important role in both the natural equilibrium climate and the climate perturbed by anthropogenic activity and need to be considered in future climate projections.

Boreal spring climate is uniquely susceptible to solar warming mechanisms because it has expansive snow cover and receives relatively strong insolation. Carbonaceous particles can influence snow coverage by warming the atmosphere, reducing surface-incident solar energy (dimming), and reducing snow reflectance after deposition (darkening). We apply a range of models and observations to explore impacts of these processes on springtime climate, drawing several conclusions: 1) Nearly all atmospheric particles (those with visible-band single-scatter albedo less than 0.999), including all mixtures of black carbon (BC) and organic matter (OM), increase net solar heating of the atmosphere-snow column. 2) Darkening caused by small concentrations of particles within snow exceeds the loss of absorbed energy from concurrent dimming, thus increasing solar heating of snowpack as well (positive net surface forcing). Over global snow, we estimate 6-fold greater surface forcing from darkening than dimming, caused by BC+OM. 3) Equilibrium climate experiments suggest that fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of BC+OM induce 95% as much springtime snow cover loss over Eurasia as anthropogenic carbon dioxide, a consequence of strong snow-albedo feedback and large BC+OM emissions from Asia. 4) Of 22 climate models contributing to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 21 underpredict the rapid warming (0.64°C decade⁻¹) observed over springtime Eurasia since 1979. Darkening from natural and anthropogenic sources of BC and mineral dust exerts 3-fold greater forcing on springtime snow over Eurasia (3.9 W m⁻²) than North America (1.2 W m⁻²). Inclusion of this forcing significantly improves simulated continental warming trends, but does not reconcile the low bias in rate of Eurasian spring snow cover decline exhibited by all models, likely because BC deposition trends are negative or near-neutral over much of Eurasia. Improved Eurasian warming may therefore relate more to darkening-induced reduction in mean snow cover.

n this study, we present the results of nitrogen deposition on land from a set of 29 simulations from six different tropospheric chemistry models pertaining to present-day and 2100 conditions. Nitrogen deposition refers here to the deposition (wet and dry) of all nitrogen-containing gas phase chemical species resulting from NO_x (NO + NO₂) emissions. We show that under the assumed IPCC SRES A2 scenario the global annual average nitrogen deposition over land is expected to increase by a factor of ∼2.5, mostly because of the increase in nitrogen emissions. This will significantly expand the areas with annual average deposition exceeding 1 gN/m²/year. Using the results from all models, we have documented the strong linear relationship between models on the fraction of the nitrogen emissions that is deposited, regardless of the emissions (present day or 2100). On average, approximately 70% of the emitted nitrogen is deposited over the landmasses. For present-day conditions the results from this study suggest that the deposition over land ranges between 25 and 40 Tg(N)/year. By 2100, under the A2 scenario, the deposition over the continents is expected to range between 60 and 100 Tg(N)/year. Over forests the deposition is expected to increase from 10 Tg(N)/year to 20 Tg(N)/year. In 2100 the nitrogen deposition changes from changes in the climate account for much less than the changes from increased nitrogen emissions.

An extensive set of measurements was made in and around Mexico City as part of the MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations) experiments in March 2006. Simulations with the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), a global chemical transport model, have been used to provide a regional context for these observations and assist in their interpretation. These MOZART-4 simulations reproduce the aircraft observations generally well, but some differences in the modeled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the observations result from incorrect VOC speciation assumed for the emission inventories. The different types of CO sources represented in the model have been "tagged" to quantify the contributions of regions outside Mexico, as well as the various emissions sectors within Mexico, to the regional air quality of Mexico. This analysis indicates open fires have some, but not a dominant, impact on the atmospheric composition in the region around Mexico City when averaged over the month. However, considerable variation in the fire contribution (2-15% of total CO) is seen during the month. The transport and photochemical aging of Mexico City emissions were studied using tags of CO emissions for each day, showing that typically the air downwind of Mexico City was a combination of many ages. Ozone production in MOZART-4 is shown to agree well with the net production rates from box model calculations constrained by the MILAGRO aircraft measurements. Ozone production efficiency derived from the ratio of O-x to NOz is higher in MOZART-4 than in the observations for moderately polluted air. OH reactivity determined from the MOZART-4 results shows the same increase in relative importance of oxygenated VOCs downwind of Mexico City as the reactivity inferred from the observations. The amount of ozone produced by emissions from Mexico City and surrounding areas has been quantified in the model by tracking NO emissions, showing little influence beyond Mexico's borders, and also relatively minor influence from fire emissions on the monthly average tropospheric ozone column.

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ± 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (–2.3 ± 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ± 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (–2.3 ± 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.