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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Scholarly Works (4 results)

  • Article
  • Peer Reviewed
UC Irvine Previously Published Works (2021)
We report on an experiment that distinguishes between rational social learning and behavioral information source bias. Subjects are asked to correctly guess the current binary state of the world. Differently from other social learning studies, subjects must choose between receiving a private, noisy signal about the current state or observing the past guesses of other subjects in the prior period. Our design varies the persistence of the state across time, which affects whether private or social information is optimal. Thus our design enables us to separate subjects who choose information optimally from those who excessively use either social information (“herd animals”) or private information (“lone wolves”). We find sizable proportions of both behavioral types.
    Cover page: Lone wolf or herd animal? Information choice and learning from others
    • Article
    Working Paper Series (2012)
      Cover page: Cycles and Instability in a Rock-Paper-Scissors Population Game: a Continuous Time Experiment
      • Article
      • Peer Reviewed
      UC Irvine Previously Published Works (2019)
      We document heterogeneity of rationality and bias in information acquisition in a social learning experiment, where subjects, prior to guessing an unknown binary state of the world, must choose between receiving a private signal or seeing social information containing the guesses made by previous subjects in the sequence - rather than observing both pieces of information as in the classic design of Anderson and Holt (1997). By requiring subjects to make this information choice at different points in the sequence, our within-subject design allows us to separate biased from optimal information choices. Overall, the majority of subjects exhibit a suboptimal bias in favor of choosing social rather than private information, consistent with underestimating both mistakes made by other subjects and the frequency of uninformative social information. Furthermore, a substantial minority behave according to a refined equilibrium prediction, while some subjects consistently choose social information and others consistently choose private information.
        Cover page: Information choice in a social learning experiment
        • Article
        Working Paper Series (2009)

        We report experiments designed to test between Nash equilibria that are stable and unstable under learning. The “TASP” (Time Average of the Shapley Polygon) gives a precise prediction about what happens when there is divergence from equilibrium under fictitious play like learning processes. We use two 4 x 4 games each with a unique mixed Nash equilibrium; one is stable and one is unstable under learning. Both games are versions of Rock-Paper-Scissors with the addition of a fourth strategy, Dumb. Nash equilibrium places a weight of 1/2 on Dumb in both games, but the TASP places no weight on Dumb when the equilibrium is unstable. We also vary the level of monetary payoffs with higher payoffs predicted to increase instability. We find that the high payoff unstable treatment differs from the others. Frequency of Dumb is lower and play is further from Nash than in the other treatments. That is, we find support for the comparative statics prediction of learning theory, although the frequency of Dumb is substantially greater than zero in the unstable treatments.

          Cover page: Testing the TASP: An Experimental Investigation of Learning in Games with Unstable Equilibria
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