The rates of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) have been rising by 0.5% to 2.4% annually for three decades, accounting for an estimated 12% of all colorectal cancer diagnosed in the United States in 2020. Enhancing the rigor and comprehensiveness of the epidemiology in terms of the exposures and prognostic biomarkers is essential if we are to modify risk factors and underlying mechanisms, ultimately arresting this unduly trend. This commentary serves to describe the disease trend, postulate underlying risk factors and mechanisms driving disease incidence, and proposes a call to action for cancer epidemiologists to promote increased and timely opportunities to intervene on this trend.

Adherence to the American Cancer Society's (ACS) Nutrition and Physical Activity Cancer Prevention Guidelines is associated with reductions in overall cancer incidence and mortality, including site-specific cancers such as colorectal cancer. We examined the relationship between baseline adherence to the ACS guidelines and (1) baseline adenoma characteristics and (2) odds of recurrent colorectal adenomas over 3 years of follow-up. Cross-sectional and prospective analyses with a pooled sample of participants from the Wheat Bran Fiber (n = 503) and Ursodeoxycholic Acid (n = 854) trials were performed. A cumulative adherence score was constructed using baseline self-reported data regarding body size, diet, physical activity and alcohol consumption. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated significantly reduced odds of having three or more adenomas at baseline for moderately adherent (odds ratio [OR] = 0.67, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.46⁻0.99) and highly adherent (OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.31⁻0.81) participants compared to low adherers (p-trend = 0.005). Conversely, guideline adherence was not associated with development of recurrent colorectal adenoma (moderate adherence OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.85⁻1.59, high adherence OR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.85⁻1.79).

Objective

For individuals with 1-2 small (<1 cm) low-risk colorectal adenomas, international guidelines range from no surveillance to offering surveillance colonoscopy in 5-10 years. We hypothesised that the risks for metachronous advanced neoplasia (AN) among patients with low-risk adenomas differ based on clinical factors distinct from those currently used.

Design

We pooled data from seven prospective studies to assess the risk of metachronous AN. Two groups with 1-2 small adenomas were defined based on guidelines from the UK (n=4516) or the European Union (EU)/US (n=2477).

Results

Absolute risk of metachronous AN ranged from a low of 2.9% to a high of 12.2%, depending on specific risk factor and guideline used. For the UK group, the highest absolute risks for metachronous AN were found among individuals with a history of prior polyp (12.2%), villous histology (12.2%), age ≥70 years (10.9%), high-grade dysplasia (10.9%), any proximal adenoma (10.2%), distal and proximal adenoma (10.8%) or two adenomas (10.1%). For the EU/US group, the highest absolute risks for metachronous AN were among individuals with a history of prior polyp (11.5%) or the presence of both proximal and distal adenomas (11.0%). In multivariate analyses, strong associations for increasing age and history of prior polyps and odds of metachronous AN were observed, whereas more modest associations were shown for baseline proximal adenomas and those with villous features.

Conclusions

Risks of metachronous AN among individuals with 1-2 small adenomas vary according to readily available clinical characteristics. These characteristics may be considered for recommending colonoscopy surveillance and require further investigation.

Purpose

Following colonoscopic polypectomy, US Multisociety Task Force (USMSTF) guidelines stratify patients based on risk of subsequent advanced neoplasia (AN) using number, size, and histology of resected polyps, but have only moderate sensitivity and specificity. We hypothesized that a state-of-the-art statistical prediction model might improve identification of patients at high risk of future AN and address these challenges.

Methods

Data were pooled from seven prospective studies which had follow-up ascertainment of metachronous AN within 3-5 years of baseline polypectomy (combined n = 8,228). Pooled data were randomly split into training (n = 5,483) and validation (n = 2,745) sets. A prognostic model was developed using best practices. Two risk cut-points were identified in the training data which achieved a 10 percentage point improvement in sensitivity and specificity, respectively, over current USMSTF guidelines. Clinical benefit of USMSTF versus model-based risk stratification was then estimated using validation data.

Results

The final model included polyp location, prior polyp history, patient age, and number, size and histology of resected polyps. The first risk cut-point improved sensitivity but with loss of specificity. The second risk cut-point improved specificity without loss of sensitivity (specificity 46.2 % model vs. 42.1 % guidelines, p < 0.001; sensitivity 75.8 % model vs. 74.0 % guidelines, p = 0.64). Estimated AUC was 65 % (95 % CI: 62-69 %).

Conclusion

This model-based approach allows flexibility in trading sensitivity and specificity, which can optimize colonoscopy over- versus underuse rates. Only modest improvements in prognostic power are possible using currently available clinical data. Research considering additional factors such as adenoma detection rate for risk prediction appears warranted.

Background

Fiber-based prebiotic supplements are marketed for maintaining bowel health and promoting beneficial gut bacteria. However, the association between prebiotic supplement use and colorectal cancer risk and mortality is unknown.

Methods

The association between prebiotic use and colorectal cancer risk and mortality was evaluated in postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative study. Self-reported prebiotic use was documented at study enrollment. Adjudicated colorectal cancer cases and mortality were captured using medical and death records. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the HR related to prebiotic use and colorectal cancer risk and mortality.

Results

In total, 3,032 colorectal cancer cases were diagnosed during an average 15.4 years of follow-up. Overall, 3.7% of women used a prebiotic with psyllium, the major fiber type. Use of any prebiotic supplement was not associated with colorectal cancer risk or mortality. The type of prebiotic supplement (none vs. insoluble or soluble) was not associated with colorectal cancer risk; however, use of insoluble fiber prebiotics compared with none was associated with higher colorectal cancer mortality [HR, 2.79; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.32-5.90; P = 0.007]. Likelihood ratio tests indicated no significant interactions between prebiotic use and other colorectal cancer risk factors, including metabolic syndrome.

Conclusions

Prebiotic fiber supplement use was not associated with colorectal cancer risk. Insoluble, but not soluble, prebiotic fiber use was associated with higher colorectal cancer mortality. These findings do not support the promotion of prebiotic fiber supplements to reduce colorectal cancer risk or colorectal cancer mortality.

Impact

Further investigation is warranted for findings regarding insoluble prebiotic fiber and higher colorectal cancer mortality in postmenopausal women.

Purpose

The association between physical activity and colorectal adenoma is equivocal. This study was designed to assess the relationship between physical activity and colorectal adenoma recurrence.

Methods

Pooled analyses from two randomized, controlled trials included 1,730 participants who completed the Arizona Activity Frequency Questionnaire at baseline, had a colorectal adenoma removed within 6 months of study registration, and had a follow-up colonoscopy during the trial. Logistic regression modeling was employed to estimate the effect of sedentary behavior, light-intensity physical activity, and moderate-vigorous physical activity on colorectal adenoma recurrence.

Results

No statistically significant trends were found for any activity type and odds of colorectal adenoma recurrence in the pooled population. However, males with the highest levels of sedentary time experienced 47% higher odds of adenoma recurrence. Compared to the lowest quartile of sedentary time, the ORs (95% CIs) for the second, third, and fourth quartiles among men were 1.23 (0.88, 1.74), 1.41 (0.99, 2.01), and 1.47 (1.03, 2.11), respectively (p(trend) = 0.03). No similar association was observed for women.

Conclusions

This study suggests that sedentary behavior is associated with a higher risk of colorectal adenoma recurrence among men, providing evidence of detrimental effects of a sedentary lifestyle early in the carcinogenesis pathway.

In the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial of calcium plus vitamin D (CaD), we examined the treatment effect on incidence and mortality for all invasive cancers. Postmenopausal women (N = 36,282) were randomized to 1,000 mg of elemental calcium with 400 IU vitamin D3 or placebo. Cox models estimated risk of cancer incidence and mortality. After 7.0 yr, 1,306 invasive cancers were diagnosed in the supplement and 1,333 in the placebo group [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.98; CI = 0.90, 1.05, unweighted P = 0.54]. Mortality did not differ between supplement (315, annualized% = .26) and placebo [(347, 0.28%; P = 0.17; HR = 0.90 (0.77, 1.05)]. Significant treatment interactions on incident cancer were found for family history of cancer, personal total intake of vitamin D, smoking, and WHI dietary trial randomized group. Calcium/vitamin D supplementation did not reduce invasive cancer incidence or mortality. Supplementation lowered cancer risk in the WHI healthy diet trial arm and in women without a first-degree relative with cancer. The interactions are only suggestive given multiple testing considerations. The low vitamin D dose provided, limited adherence, and lack of serum 25(OH)D values should be considered when interpreting these findings.

Selenium supplementation may help to prevent colorectal cancer; as precursors of colorectal cancer, colorectal adenomas are a surrogate for colorectal cancer. Selenium supplementation may increase risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). The Selenium and Celecoxib (Sel/Cel) Trial was a randomized, placebo controlled trial of selenium 200 µg daily as selenized yeast and celecoxib 400 mg once daily, alone or together, for colorectal adenoma prevention. Men and women between age 40 and 80 years were eligible following colonoscopic removal of colorectal adenomas. The primary outcome was adenoma development. Celecoxib was suspended because of cardiovascular toxicity in other trials, but accrual continued to selenium and placebo. A total of 1621 participants were randomly assigned to selenium or placebo, of whom 1374 (84.8%) were available for analysis. All statistical tests were two-sided. In the respective placebo and selenium arms of 689 and 685 participants, adenoma detection after medians of 33.6 (range = 0.0-85.1 months) and 33.0 months (range = 0.0-82.6 months) were 42.8% and 44.1% (relative risk [RR] = 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91 to 1.16, P = .68). In participants with baseline advanced adenomas, adenoma recurrence was reduced by 18% with selenium (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.71 to 0.96, P = .01). In participants receiving selenium, the hazard ratio for new-onset T2D was 1.25 (95% CI = 0.74 to 2.11, P = .41), with a statistically significantly increased risk of selenium-associated T2D among older participants (RR = 2.21; 95% CI = 1.04 to 4.67, P = .03). Overall, selenium did not prevent colorectal adenomas and showed only modest benefit in patients with baseline advanced adenomas. With limited benefit and similar increases in T2D to other trials, selenium is not recommended for preventing colorectal adenomas in selenium-replete individuals.