Many large-bodied marine fishes that form spawning aggregations, such as the Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), have suffered regional overfishing due to exploitation during spawning. In response, marine resource managers in many locations have established marine protected areas or seasonal closures to recover these overfished stocks. The challenge in assessing management effectiveness lies largely in the development of accurate estimates to track stock size through time. For the past 15 y, the Cayman Islands government has taken a series of management actions aimed at recovering collapsed stocks of Nassau grouper. Importantly, the government also partnered with academic and nonprofit organizations to establish a research and monitoring program (Grouper Moon) aimed at documenting the impacts of conservation action. Here, we develop an integrated population model of 2 Cayman Nassau grouper stocks based on both diver-collected mark-resight observations and video censuses. Using both data types across multiple years, we fit parameters for a state-space model for population growth. We show that over the last 15 y the Nassau grouper population on Little Cayman has more than tripled in response to conservation efforts. Census data from Cayman Brac, while more sparse, show a similar pattern. These findings demonstrate that spatial and seasonal closures aimed at rebuilding aggregation-based fisheries can foster conservation success.

Dispersal of eggs and larvae from spawning sites is critical to the population dynamics and conservation of marine fishes. For overfished species like critically endangered Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), recovery depends on the fate of eggs spawned at the few remaining aggregation sites. Biophysical models can predict larval dispersal, yet these rely on assumed values of key parameters, such as diffusion and mortality rates, which have historically been difficult or impossible to estimate. We used in situ imaging to record three-dimensional positions of individual eggs and larvae in proximity to oceanographic drifters released into egg plumes from the largest known Nassau grouper spawning aggregation. We then estimated a diffusion-mortality model and applied it to previous years drifter tracks to evaluate the possibility of retention versus export to nearby sites within 5 days of spawning. Results indicate that larvae were retained locally in 2011 and 2017, with 2011 recruitment being a substantial driver of population recovery on Little Cayman. Export to a nearby island with a depleted population occurred in 2016. After two decades of protection, the population appears to be self-replenishing but also capable of seeding recruitment in the region, supporting calls to incorporate spawning aggregation protections into fisheries management.

For cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization observations, calibration of detector polarization angles is essential. We have developed a fully remote controlled calibration system with a sparse wire grid that reflects linearly polarized light along the wire direction. The new feature is a remote-controlled system for regular calibration, which has not been possible in sparse wire grid calibrators in past experiments. The remote control can be achieved by two electric linear actuators that load or unload the sparse wire grid into a position centered on the optical axis of a telescope between the calibration time and CMB observation. Furthermore, the sparse wire grid can be rotated by using a motor. A rotary encoder and a gravity sensor are installed on the sparse wire grid to monitor the wire direction. They allow us to achieve detector polarization angle calibration with an expected systematic error of 0.08°. The calibration system will be installed in small-aperture telescopes at Simons Observatory.

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is a probe-class mission concept currently under study by NASA. PICO will probe the physics of the Big Bang and the energy scale of inflation, constrain the sum of neutrino masses, measure the growth of structures in the universe, and constrain its reionization history by making full sky maps of the cosmic microwave background with sensitivity 80 times higher than the Planck space mission. With bands at 21-799 GHz and arcmin resolution at the highest frequencies, PICO will make polarization maps of Galactic synchrotron and dust emission to observe the role of magnetic fields in Milky Way's evolution and star formation. We discuss PICO's optical system, focal plane, and give current best case noise estimates. The optical design is a two-reflector optimized open-Dragone design with a cold aperture stop. It gives a diffraction limited field of view (DLFOV) with throughput of 910 cm2sr at 21 GHz. The large 82 square degree DLFOV hosts 12,996 transition edge sensor bolometers distributed in 21 frequency bands and maintained at 0.1 K. We use focal plane technologies that are currently implemented on operating CMB instruments including three-color multi-chroic pixels and multiplexed readouts. To our knowledge, this is the first use of an open-Dragone design for mm-wave astrophysical observations, and the only monolithic CMB instrument to have such a broad frequency coverage. With current best case estimate polarization depth of 0.65 μKCMB-arcmin over the entire sky, PICO is the most sensitive CMB instrument designed to date.

CMB-HD is a proposed ultra-deep (0.5 uk-arcmin), high-resolution (15 arcseconds) millimeter-wave survey over half the sky that would answer many outstanding questions in both fundamental physics of the Universe and astrophysics. This survey would be delivered in 7.5 years of observing 20,000 square degrees, using two new 30-meter-class off-axis cross-Dragone telescopes to be located at Cerro Toco in the Atacama Desert. Each telescope would field 800,000 detectors (200,000 pixels), for a total of 1.6 million detectors.

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is a NASA-funded study of a Probe-class mission concept. The toplevel science objectives are to probe the physics of the Big Bang by measuring or constraining the energy scale of inflation, probe fundamental physics by measuring the number of light particles in the Universe and the sum of neutrino masses, to measure the reionization history of the Universe, and to understand the mechanisms driving the cosmic star formation history, and the physics of the galactic magnetic field. PICO would have multiple frequency bands between 21 and 799 GHz, and would survey the entire sky, producing maps of the polarization of the cosmic microwave background radiation, of galactic dust, of synchrotron radiation, and of various populations of point sources. Several instrument configurations, optical systems, cooling architectures, and detector and readout technologies have been and continue to be considered in the development of the mission concept. We will present a snapshot of the baseline mission concept currently under development.

A millimeter-wave survey over half the sky, that spans frequencies in the range of 30 to 350 GHz, and that is both an order of magnitude deeper and of higher-resolution than currently funded surveys would yield an enormous gain in understanding of both fundamental physics and astrophysics. By providing such a deep, high-resolution millimeter-wave survey (about 0.5 uK-arcmin noise and 15 arcsecond resolution at 150 GHz), CMB-HD will enable major advances. It will allow 1) the use of gravitational lensing of the primordial microwave background to map the distribution of matter on small scales (k~10/hMpc), which probes dark matter particle properties. It will also allow 2) measurements of the thermal and kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effects on small scales to map the gas density and gas pressure profiles of halos over a wide field, which probes galaxy evolution and cluster astrophysics. In addition, CMB-HD would allow us to cross critical thresholds in fundamental physics: 3) ruling out or detecting any new, light (< 0.1eV), thermal particles, which could potentially be the dark matter, and 4) testing a wide class of multi-field models that could explain an epoch of inflation in the early Universe. Such a survey would also 5) monitor the transient sky by mapping the full observing region every few days, which opens a new window on gamma-ray bursts, novae, fast radio bursts, and variable active galactic nuclei. Moreover, CMB-HD would 6) provide a census of planets, dwarf planets, and asteroids in the outer Solar System, and 7) enable the detection of exo-Oort clouds around other solar systems, shedding light on planet formation. CMB-HD will deliver this survey in 5 years of observing half the sky, using two new 30-meter-class off-axis cross-Dragone telescopes to be located at Cerro Toco in the Atacama Desert. The telescopes will field about 2.4 million detectors (600,000 pixels) in total.

We quantify the calibration requirements for systematic uncertainties for next-generation ground-based observatories targeting the large-angle B-mode polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background, with a focus on the Simons Observatory (SO). We explore uncertainties on gain calibration, bandpass center frequencies, and polarization angles, including the frequency variation of the latter across the bandpass. We find that gain calibration and bandpass center frequencies must be known to percent levels or less to avoid biases on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r on the order of Δ r∼10-3, in line with previous findings. Polarization angles must be calibrated to the level of a few tenths of a degree, while their frequency variation between the edges of the band must be known to O(10) degrees. Given the tightness of these calibration requirements, we explore the level to which residual uncertainties on these systematics would affect the final constraints on r if included in the data model and marginalized over. We find that the additional parameter freedom does not degrade the final constraints on r significantly, broadening the error bar by O(10%) at most. We validate these results by reanalyzing the latest publicly available data from the collaboration within an extended parameter space covering both cosmological, foreground and systematic parameters. Finally, our results are discussed in light of the instrument design and calibration studies carried out within SO.

Opening up a new window of millimeter-wave observations that span frequency bands in the range of 30 to 500 GHz, survey half the sky, and are both an order of magnitude deeper (about 0.5 uK-arcmin) and of higher-resolution (about 10 arcseconds) than currently funded surveys would yield an enormous gain in understanding of both fundamental physics and astrophysics. In particular, such a survey would allow for major advances in measuring the distribution of dark matter and gas on small-scales, and yield needed insight on 1.) dark matter particle properties, 2.) the evolution of gas and galaxies, 3.) new light particle species, 4.) the epoch of inflation, and 5.) the census of bodies orbiting in the outer Solar System.