Human infection with the Southeast Asian liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini and liver fluke-associated cholangiocarcinoma cause significant disease burden in Southeast Asia. While there has been considerable work to understand liver fluke pathology and to reduce infection prevalence, there remains a limited understanding of the environmental determinants of parasite transmission dynamics to inform treatment and control programs. A particular setting where targeted control efforts have taken place is the Lawa Lake complex in northeast Thailand. Here, we describe the recent history of host infections, as well as the hydrologic characteristics of this floodplain ecosystem that influence the extent of snail habitat and fish mobility and the transport of human waste and parasite cercariae. Using mathematical modeling, we outline a framework for reconstructing environmental transmission of O. viverrini over the course of the Lawa Project control program from its inception in 2008 until 2016, using locally acquired but fragmentary longitudinal infection data for both humans and environmental hosts. The role of water flow in facilitating movement between snail, fish, human, and reservoir hosts is a particular focus with respect to its relevant scales and its impact on success of interventions. In this setting, we argue that an understanding of the key environmental drivers of disease transmission processes is central to the effectiveness of any environmental intervention.

Transmissibility is a significant factor in parasite fitness. The rate and magnitude of parasite transmission affect prevalence and infection intensity in individual hosts and are influenced by environmental factors. In this context, the objectives of this study were: (i) to experimentally assess Opisthorchis viverrini miracidia survival and infectivity over time and across temperatures; and (ii) to combine these experimental results with environmental data to build a key component of a transmission model, identifying seasonal windows of transmission risk in hyper-endemic northeastern Thailand. Five replicates of 50 O. viverrini eggs were randomly distributed and maintained under four temperature conditions (25°C, 30°C, 35°C, 40°C). Microscopic observations were performed on all experimental units over a period of 3months to record miracidia motility and mortality trends. Six infection trials were also conducted to assess infectivity of miracidia over time and across temperatures, using observations of egg hatching success and infection rates. Upon completion of experiments, data were integrated into a transmission model to create a transmission risk index and to simulate seasonal transmission risk. Miracidia survival rate and motility decreased steadily with 50% mortality observed after 2weeks. Hatching and infection success also decreased significantly after 3weeks. Temperatures over 30°C were associated with increased mortality and decreased infectivity. When incorporating local environmental parameters into our model, we observed low transmission risk during the dry season and increasing transmission risk at the onset of the rainy season, culminating with the highest risk in September. We believe that our results provide the first estimates of O. viverrini miracidia survival and transmission potential under variable temperature conditions and suggest that high temperature treatment (>40°C) of fecal waste could be an efficient control strategy.