Whereas battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are on their path to maturity in the light-duty segment, their viability in medium- and heavy-duty applications faces greater skepticism. Furthermore, their higher upfront cost relative to diesel trucks is perceived as even more challenging for less wealthy nations such as India. Here, we undertake a total cost of ownership (TCO) assessment of battery electric trucks (BETs) for four different classes of freight trucks in India using a bottom-up vehicle subsystem level cost estimation. We estimate that, in a scenario in which the incremental upfront cost of BETs relative to a diesel truck is simply the extra cost of the battery pack procured at close to current average international battery pack prices, BETs could have lower TCO, less than 5-year payback, and deliver substantial life cycle cost savings, even without accounting for their environmental benefits. In addition to eliminating tailpipe pollution, they already deliver lower life cycle greenhouse gas emissions based on the current average electricity mix in India. Achieving a scale production that yields lower TCO will, however, require public support over a long maturation phase marked by learning-by-doing externalities and lack of economies of scale when BETs will be costlier. Currently, while there exist multiple types of incentive for light-duty BEVs as well as for cell manufacturing in India, targeted policies for zero emissions trucks are absent; this is a gap that needs to be filled if BETs are to emerge as a serious alternative to diesel trucks in a decade or so.

The main objectives of this analysis are to examine the benefits and costs of fuel-saving technologies for new heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) in India over the next 10 years and, to explore how various scenarios for the deployment of vehicles with these technologies will impact petroleum consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions over the next three decades. The study team developed simulation models for three representative HDV types—a 40-tonne tractor-trailer, 25-tonne rigid truck, and 16-tonne transit bus—based on top-selling vehicle models in the Indian market. The baseline technology profiles for all three vehicles were developed using India-specific engine data and vehicle specification information from manufacturer literature and input from industry experts. For each of the three vehicles we developed a comprehensive set of seven efficiency technology packages drawing from five major areas: engine, transmission and driveline, tires, aerodynamics, and weight reduction. Our analysis finds that India has substantial opportunity to improve HDV fuel efficiency levels using cost-effective technologies. Results from our simulation modeling of three representative HDV types—a tractor-trailer, rigid truck, and transit bus—reveal that per-vehicle fuel consumption reductions between roughly 20% and 35% are possible with technologies that provide a return on the initial capital investment within 1 to 2 years. Though most of these technologies are currently unavailable in India, experiences in other more advanced markets such as the US and EU suggest that with sufficient incentives and robust regulatory design, significant progress can be made in developing and deploying efficiency technologies that can provide real-world fuel savings for new commercial vehicles in India over the next 10 years. Bringing HDVs in India up to world-class technology levels will yield substantial petroleum and GHG reductions. By 2030, the fuel and CO2 reductions of the scenarios range from 10% to 34%, and at the end of 2050, these reductions grow to 13% and 41%. If we constrain the analysis to select the most efficient technology package that provides the fleets with payback times of 3 years or less, there are annual fleet-wide savings of roughly 11 MTOE of diesel and 34 MMT of CO2 in 2030, and this grows to 31 MTOE and 97 MMT by 2050.

In October of 2016, nearly 200 Parties agreed to amend the Montreal Protocol in Kigali, Rwanda, to phase-down consumption and production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) by 2050. Growth in the use of HFCs, including those currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, is being driven by demand from emerging economies, hot climates, and rising incomes that are also undergoing rapid urbanization and electrification. Air conditioners (ACs), as an energy-intensive end-use technology, are also covered by a growing number of energy efficiency standards, labeling, procurement, incentive, and other supporting efficiency programs. Therefore, improving room AC energy efficiency and transitioning to low-global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants simultaneously presents significant opportunities to deploy energy efficient technology and reduce the energy and emissions impacts of room ACs, while keeping costs low for consumers. This report aims to provide an initial sense of the opportunities to improve efficiency and transition to low-GWP refrigerants by reviewing the HCFC and HFC regulatory framework and energy efficiency standards and labeling programs in 19 economies that account for roughly 65 percent of global room AC demand. Based on this analysis, we identified key opportunities for coordinated action on efficiency improvement and refrigerant transition for the domestic room AC sector (i.e., ductless mini-split ACs), such as: - implementing or revising standards and labeling programs to improve efficiency levels with the possibility of adding a low-GWP criterion. - combining fixed speed and inverter AC product categories to account for seasonal variations in climate and part-load operating conditions, and using seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) instead of energy efficiency ratio (EER) to better reflect performance of inverter ACs. - implementing market transformation programs, such as bulk procurement programs, to drive down the costs of efficient technology through economies of scale. - aligning timelines for implementing efficiency standards with timelines for refrigerant management plans to coordinate policy actions. - maximizing the energy efficiency improvements of Montreal Protocol investments by coordinating efforts to help keep costs low for consumers and manufacturers during equipment redesign and manufacturing line retooling for refrigerant transition. In order to realize the significant peak load, energy saving and climate benefits of these opportunities associated with improving energy efficiency in tandem with the refrigerant transition, some risks may need to be mitigated, principally safety concerns over risks of accidental ignition with refrigerants rated flammable. This can be mitigated by continuing and accelerating the development of safety standards currently being updated, for example, by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) and improving training for production, installation and maintenance during the use of flammable refrigerants. While some low-GWP refrigerants may cost more than the current baseline refrigerants, the cost of refrigerants is only ~1% of lifecycle costs for an AC. Costs can also be reduced through manufacturing advances and efficiency improvements, particularly if they are supported by policies that encourage technological development through deployment of superefficient ACs at scale. Finally, during the transition, there is a risk of obsolete technology being deployed in markets that either have not updated their standards or have later compliance dates. This risk can be mitigated by updating standards and reviewing them periodically to ensure their effectiveness.

The revision of Brazil's minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for air conditioners (ACs) - which are currently set to a modest level compared with international standards - represents a major energy-saving opportunity. We analyze the technical requirements, manufacturer economics, and broader benefits of strengthening Brazil's MEPS policies. First, we develop a cost-versus-efficiency curve based on more than 300 configurations of mini-split ACs rated at 1.0 refrigeration ton (3.5 kW). We use this curve and economic modeling to estimate the manufacturer costs and industry net present value (INPV) of higher MEPS levels. The change in INPV is highly positive and increasing for higher-efficiency variable-speed ACs, indicating that manufacturers will benefit most by switching their production to the variable-speed (inverter) technology. Achieving more modest efficiency levels require similar investments, which manufacturers do not recover through future revenues. Higher MEPS also provide larger consumer and national benefits. At the highest level analyzed (i.e., at the estimated technical potential), Brazilian consumers save R$27 billion through 2035, and the power sector avoids 4.5 GW of demand (worth an additional R$30 billion) - representing R$400 in consumer/national benefits for every R$1 invested in manufacturing high-efficiency ACs. In addition, higher MEPS result in substantial national CO2 reductions, which could be increased further by simultaneously and cost-effectively transitioning to refrigerants with low global warming potential (GWP) in accordance with the goals of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol; our manufacturing analysis is applicable to ACs that use low-GWP refrigerants. Although we focus on MEPS, our analysis can also inform the design of complementary policies that promote high-efficiency ACs in Brazil. We offer several policy recommendations based on our findings.

Smart grids are rolling out internationally, with the United States (U.S.) nearing completion of a significant USD4-plus-billion federal program funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA-2009). The emergence of smart grids is widespread across developed countries. Multiple approaches to analyzing the benefits of smart grids have emerged. The goals of this white paper are to review these approaches and analyze examples of each to highlight their differences, advantages, and disadvantages. This work was conducted under the auspices of a joint U.S.-China research effort, the Climate Change Working Group (CCWG) Implementation Plan, Smart Grid. We present comparative benefits assessments (BAs) of smart grid demonstrations in the U.S. and China along with a BA of a pilot project in Europe. In the U.S., we assess projects at two sites: (1) the University of California, Irvine campus (UCI), which consists of two distinct demonstrations: Southern California Edison’s (SCE) Irvine Smart Grid Demonstration Project (ISGD) and the UCI campus itself; and (2) the Navy Yard (TNY) area in Philadelphia, which has been repurposed as a mixed commercial-industrial, and possibly residential, development. In China, we cover several smart-grid aspects of the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city (TEC) and the Shenzhen Bay Technology and Ecology City (B-TEC). In Europe, we look at a BA of a pilot smart grid project in the Malagrotta area west of Rome, Italy, contributed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. The Irvine sub-project BAs use the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) Smart Grid Computational Tool (SGCT), which is built on methods developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The TEC sub-project BAs apply Smart Grid Multi-Criteria Analysis (SG-MCA) developed by the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with fuzzy logic. The B-TEC and TNY sub-project BAs are evaluated using new approaches developed by those project teams. JRC has adopted an approach similar to EPRI’s but tailored to the Malagrotta distribution grid.