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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Scholarly Works (7 results)

  • Article
  • Peer Reviewed
UC Irvine Previously Published Works (2017)
For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions.
    Cover page: Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions
    • Article
    • Peer Reviewed
    UC Irvine Previously Published Works (2018)
      Cover page: Do Pictographs Affect Probability Comprehension and Risk Perception of Multiple‐Risk Communications?
      • Article
      Recent Work (2002)

      Ambiguity aversion has been widely observed in individuals’ judgments. Using scenarios that are typical in decision analysis, we investigate ambiguity aversion for pairs of individuals. We examine risky and cautious shifts from individuals’ original judgments to their judgments when they are paired up in dyads. In our experiment the participants were first asked to specify individually their willingness-to-pay for six monetary gambles. They were then paired at random into dyads, and were asked to specify their willingness-to-pay amount for the same gambles. The dyad’s willingness-to-pay amount was to be shared equally by the two individuals. Of the six gambles in our experiment, one involved no ambiguity and the remaining five involved ambiguity with different degrees of familiarity. We found that dyads exhibited both risk aversion as well as ambiguity aversion. Further, when facing ambiguity, dyads’ willingness-to-pay amounts are sometimes more and sometimes less than the average paid by the individuals making up the dyad. The majority of the dyads exhibited a cautious shift in the face of ambiguity, stating a smaller willingness-to-pay than the two individuals’ average. Our study thus confirms the persistence of ambiguity aversion in a group setting and the predominance of cautious shifts for dyads.

        Cover page: An Examination of Risk and Ambiguity Aversion in Decisions Made by Dyads
        • Article
        • Peer Reviewed
        UC Irvine Previously Published Works (2016)
          Cover page: Trust antecedents, trust and online microsourcing adoption: An empirical study from the resource perspective
          • Article
          • Peer Reviewed
          UC Irvine Previously Published Works (2014)
          This paper presents decision analysis methodology for decisions based on data from geographic information systems. The consequences of a decision alternative are modeled as distributions of outcomes across a geographic region. We discuss conditions that may conform with the decision maker's preferences over a specified set of alternatives; then we present specific forms for value or utility functions that are implied by these conditions. Decisions in which there is certainty about the consequences resulting from each alternative are considered first; then probabilistic uncertainty about the consequences is included as an extension. The methodology is applied to two hypothetical urban planning decisions involving water use and temperature reduction in regional urban development, and fire coverage across a city. These examples illustrate the applicability of the approach and the insights that can be gained from using it. © 2014 INFORMS.
          • 1 supplemental PDF
          Cover page: Decision Analysis with Geographically Varying Outcomes: Preference Models and Illustrative Applications
          • Article
          • Peer Reviewed
          UC Irvine Previously Published Works (2017)
          Most research on the performance of foreign versus domestic brands in emerging markets has examined dependent measures of product evaluation or purchase intention. However, consumers who intend to buy a product may switch to competing brands, thus displaying an intention–behavior discrepancy (IBD). Drawing on literature on country associations and dual process theory, the authors examine the performance of foreign versus domestic brands on IBD in emerging markets and the moderating role of consumer prior knowledge. They conduct an intention survey followed by a postpurchase survey in the Chinese automobile and smartphone industries and find that foreign brands have an advantage on IBD relative to domestic brands, indicating that they have the dual advantage of higher evaluations and lower IBDs. Furthermore, foreign brands’ advantage on IBD is smaller for consumers with inaccurate prior knowledge because they are more likely to systematically reprocess information and discount foreign brands’ favorable country associations. For these consumers, overestimating the product reduces foreign brands’ advantage to a lesser degree than underestimating it as a result of confirmation bias. These findings provide implications for brands in emerging markets.
            Cover page: Intention–Behavior Discrepancy of Foreign versus Domestic Brands in Emerging Markets: The Relevance of Consumer Prior Knowledge
            • Article
            • Peer Reviewed
            UC Irvine Previously Published Works (2010)
            In the context of the recent recalls of contaminated pet food and lead-painted toys in the United States, we examine patterns of risk perceptions and decisions when facing consumer product-caused quality risks. Two approaches were used to explore risk perceptions of the product recalls. In the first approach, we elicited judged probabilities and found that people appear to have greatly overestimated the actual risks for both product scenarios. In the second approach, we applied the psychometric paradigm to examine risk perception dimensions concerning these two specific products through factor analysis. There was a similar risk perception pattern for both products: they are seen as unknown risks and are relatively not dread risks. This pattern was also similar to what prior research found for lead paint. Further, we studied people's potential actions to deal with the recalls of these two products. Several factors were found to be significant predictors of respondents' cautious actions for both product scenarios. Policy considerations regarding product quality risks are discussed. For example, risk communicators could reframe information messages to prompt people to consider total risks packed together from different causes, even when the risk message has been initiated due to a specific recall event.
              Cover page: Product Quality Risk Perceptions and Decisions: Contaminated Pet Food and Lead‐Painted Toys
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