Luria and Delbrück introduced a very useful and subsequently widely adopted framework for quantitatively understanding the emergence of new cellular lineages. Here, we provide an analytical treatment of the fully stochastic version of the model, enabled by the fact that population sizes at the time of measurement are invariably very large and mutation rates are low. We show that the Lea-Coulson generating function describes the "inner solution," where the number of mutants is much smaller than the total population. We find that the corresponding distribution function interpolates between a monotonic decrease at relatively small populations, (compared with the inverse of the mutation probability), whereas it goes over to a Lévy α-stable distribution in the very large population limit. The moments are completely determined by the outer solution, and so are devoid of practical significance. The key to our solution is focusing on the fixed population size ensemble, which we show is very different from the fixed time ensemble due to the extreme variability in the evolutionary process.

We examine the two-dimensional extension of the model of Kessler and Sander of competition between two species identical except for dispersion rates. In this class of models, the spatial inhomogeneity of reproduction rates gives rise to an implicit cost of

A small fraction of cells in many bacterial populations, called persisters, are much less sensitive to antibiotic treatment than the majority. Persisters are in a dormant metabolic state, even while remaining genetically identical to the actively growing cells. Toxin and antitoxin modules in bacteria are believed to be one possible cause of persistence. A two-gene operon, HipBA, is one of many chromosomally encoded toxin and antitoxin modules in Escherichia coli and the HipA7 allelic variant was the first validated high-persistence mutant. Here, we present a stochastic model that can generate bistability of the HipBA system, via the reciprocal coupling of free HipA to the cellular growth rate. The actively growing state and the dormant state each correspond to a stable state of this model. Fluctuations enable transitions from one to the other. This model is fully in agreement with experimental data obtained with synthetic promoter constructs.

The highly skewed distribution of species among genera, although challenging to macroevolutionists, provides an opportunity to understand the dynamics of diversification, including species formation, extinction, and morphological evolution. Early models were based on either the work by Yule [Yule GU (1925) Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 213:21-87], which neglects extinction, or a simple birth-death (speciation-extinction) process. Here, we extend the more recent development of a generic, neutral speciation-extinction (of species)-origination (of genera; SEO) model for macroevolutionary dynamics of taxon diversification. Simulations show that deviations from the homogeneity assumptions in the model can be detected in species-per-genus distributions. The SEO model fits observed species-per-genus distributions well for class-to-kingdom-sized taxonomic groups. The model's predictions for the appearance times (the time of the first existing species) of the taxonomic groups also approximately match estimates based on molecular inference and fossil records. Unlike estimates based on analyses of phylogenetic reconstruction, fitted extinction rates for large clades are close to speciation rates, consistent with high rates of species turnover and the relatively slow change in diversity observed in the fossil record. Finally, the SEO model generally supports the consistency of generic boundaries based on morphological differences between species and provides a comparator for rates of lineage splitting and morphological evolution.

Fat tailed statistics and power-laws are ubiquitous in many complex systems. Usually the appearance of of a few anomalously successful individuals (bio-species, investors, websites) is interpreted as reflecting some inherent "quality" (fitness, talent, giftedness) as in Darwin's theory of natural selection. Here we adopt the opposite, "neutral", outlook, suggesting that the main factor explaining success is merely luck. The statistics emerging from the neutral birth-death-mutation (BDM) process is shown to fit marvelously many empirical distributions. While previous neutral theories have focused on the power-law tail, our theory economically and accurately explains the entire distribution. We thus suggest the BDM distribution as a standard neutral model: effects of fitness and selection are to be identified by substantial deviations from it.

A phylogenetically diverse subset of bacterial species are naturally competent for transformation by DNA. Transformation entails recombination of genes between different lineages, representing a form of bacterial sex that increases standing genetic variation. We first assess whether homologous recombination by transformation is favored by evolution. Using stochastic population genetic computer simulations in which beneficial and deleterious mutations occur at many loci throughout the whole genome, we find that transformation can increase both the rate of adaptive evolution and the equilibrium level of fitness. Secondly, motivated by experimental observations of Bacillus subtilis, we assume that competence additionally entails a weak persister phenotype, i.e., the rates of birth and death are reduced for these cells. Consequently, persisters evolve more slowly than non-persisters. We show via simulation that strains which stochastically switch into and out of the competent phenotype are evolutionarily favored over strains that express only a single phenotype. Our model's simplicity enables us to derive and numerically solve a system of finite- deterministic equations that describe the evolutionary dynamics. The observed tradeoff between the benefit of recombination and the cost of persistence may explain the previously mysterious observation that only a fractional subpopulation of B. subtilis cells express competence. More generally, this work demonstrates that population genetic forces can give rise to phenotypic diversity even in an unchanging and homogeneous environment.