Following recent shootings in the USA, a debate has erupted, one side
favoring stricter gun control, the other promoting protection through more
weapons. We provide a scientific foundation to inform this debate, based on
mathematical, epidemiological models that quantify the dependence of
firearm-related death rates of people on gun policies. We assume a shooter
attacking a single individual or a crowd. Two strategies can minimize deaths in
the model, depending on parameters: either a ban of private firearms
possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. In
particular, the outcome depends on the fraction of offenders that illegally
possess a gun, on the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and on
the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry
it with them when attacked, parameters that can be estimated from statistical
data. With the measured parameters, the model suggests that if the gun law is
enforced at a level similar to that in the United Kingdom, gun-related deaths
are minimized if private possession of firearms is banned. If such a policy is
not practical or possible due to constitutional or cultural constraints, the
model and parameter estimation indicate that a partial reduction in firearm
availability can lead to a reduction in gun-induced death rates, even if they
are not minimized. Most importantly, our analysis identifies the crucial
parameters that determine which policy reduces the death rates, providing
guidance for future statistical studies that will be necessary for more refined
quantitative predictions.