Background

Argentina's congress passed a tobacco control law that would enforce 100% smoke-free environments for the entire country, strong and pictorial health warnings on tobacco products and a comprehensive advertising ban. However, the Executive Branch continues to review the law and it has not been fully implemented. Our objective was to project the potential impact of full implementation of this tobacco control legislation on cardiovascular disease.

Methods

The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model was used to project future cardiovascular events. Data sources for the model included vital statistics, morbidity and mortality data, and tobacco use estimates from the National Risk Factor Survey. Estimated effectiveness of interventions was based on a literature review. Results were expressed as life-years, myocardial infarctions and strokes saved in an 8-year-period between 2012 and 2020. In addition we projected the incremental effectiveness on the same outcomes of a tobacco price increase not included in the law.

Results

In the period 2012-2020, 7500 CHD deaths, 16 900 myocardial infarctions and 4300 strokes could be avoided with the full implementation and enforcement of this law. Annual per cent reduction would be 3% for CHD deaths, 3% for myocardial infarctions and 1% for stroke. If a tobacco price increase is implemented the projected avoided CHD deaths, myocardial infarctions and strokes would be 15 500, 34 600 and 11 900, respectively.

Conclusions

Implementation of the tobacco control law would produce significant public health benefits in Argentina. Strong advocacy is needed at national and international levels to get this law implemented throughout Argentina.

Introduction

In Argentina, the national guidelines for lipid control emphasize the use of relatively inexpensive low- or moderate-potency statins by patients at high risk (>20 %) of a cardiovascular event. The objective of this study was to compare the impact and costs of the current national CVD prevention guidelines with regard to morbidity and mortality in Argentina with the impact and costs of three strategies that incorporate high-potency statins.

Methods

We used the CVD Policy Model-Argentina to model the proposed interventions. This model is a national-scale, state-transition (Markov) computer simulation model of the CVD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs in adults 35-84 years of age. We modeled three scenarios: scenario 1 lowers the risk threshold for treatment to >10 % according the Framingham Risk Score (FRS); scenario 2 intensifies statin potency under current treatment thresholds; and scenario 3 combines both scenarios by lowering the treatment threshold to ≥10 % FRS and intensifying statin potency.

Results

Scenario 1 would translate into 1400 fewer MIs and 500 fewer CHD deaths every year, a 3 % and 2 % reduction, respectively. Scenario 2 would lead to 2000 fewer MIs and 1000 fewer CHD deaths every year. Scenario 3 would result in the greatest reduction in MIs and CHD deaths, with 3400 fewer MIs and 1400 fewer CHD deaths every year, which translates to a 7 % and 6 % reduction, respectively. All scenarios were cost-effective if the cost of a high-potency statin pill was under US$0.25.

Conclusion

Incorporating those individuals with greater than 10 % cardiovascular risk and the use of high-potency statins into Argentina's national lipid guidelines could result in fewer CHD deaths and events at a reasonable cost.