Objective

To investigate a targeted set of biochemical biomarkers as predictors of clinically relevant osteoarthritis (OA) progression.

Methods

Eighteen biomarkers were measured at baseline, 12 months (M) and 24 M in serum (s) and/or urine (u) of cases (n=194) from the OA initiative cohort with knee OA and radiographic and persistent pain worsening from 24 to 48 M and controls (n=406) not meeting both end point criteria. Primary analyses used multivariable regression models to evaluate the association between biomarkers (baseline and time-integrated concentrations (TICs) over 12 and 24 M, transposed to z values) and case status, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, race, baseline radiographic joint space width, Kellgren-Lawrence grade, pain and pain medication use. For biomarkers with adjusted p<0.1, the c-statistic (area under the curve (AUC)), net reclassification index and the integrated discrimination improvement index were used to further select for hierarchical multivariable discriminative analysis and to determine the most predictive and parsimonious model.

Results

The 24 M TIC of eight biomarkers significantly predicted case status (ORs per 1 SD change in biomarker): sCTXI 1.28, sHA 1.22, sNTXI 1.25, uC2C-HUSA 1.27, uCTXII, 1.37, uNTXI 1.29, uCTXIα 1.32, uCTXIβ 1.27. 24 M TIC of uCTXII (1.47-1.72) and uC2C-Human Urine Sandwich Assay (HUSA) (1.36-1.50) both predicted individual group status (pain worsening, joint space loss and their combination). The most predictive and parsimonious combinatorial model for case status consisted of 24 M TIC uCTXII, sHA and sNTXI (AUC 0.667 adjusted). Baseline uCTXII and uCTXIα both significantly predicted case status (OR 1.29 and 1.20, respectively).

Conclusions

Several systemic candidate biomarkers hold promise as predictors of pain and structural worsening of OA.

Background

After anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction, patient-reported outcomes are improved 10 years post-surgery; however, cytokine concentrations remain elevated years after surgery with over 80% of those with combined ACL and meniscus injuries having posttraumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) within 10-15 years. The purpose of this multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled trial is to assess whether a 6-month course of oral montelukast after ACL reconstruction reduces systemic markers of inflammation and biochemical and imaging biomarkers of cartilage degradation.

Methods

We will enroll 30 individuals undergoing primary ACL reconstruction to participate in this IRB-approved multicenter clinical trial. This trial will target those at greatest risk of a more rapid PTOA onset (age range 25-50 with concomitant meniscus injury). Patients will be randomly assigned to a group instructed to take 10 mg of montelukast daily for 6 months following ACL reconstruction or placebo. Patients will be assessed prior to surgery and 1, 6, and 12 months following surgery. To determine if montelukast alters systemic inflammation following surgery, we will compare systemic concentrations of prostaglandin E2, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and pro-inflammatory cytokines between groups. We will also compare degradative changes on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) collected 1 and 12 months following surgery between groups with reductions in early biomarkers of cartilage degradation assessed with urinary biomarkers of type II collagen breakdown and bony remodeling.

Discussion

There is a complex interplay between the pro-inflammatory intra-articular environment, underlying bone remodeling, and progressive cartilage degradation. PTOA affects multiple tissues and appears to be more similar to rheumatoid arthritis than osteoarthritis with respect to inflammation. There is currently no treatment to delay or prevent PTOA after ACL injury. Since there is a larger and more persistent inflammatory response after ACL reconstruction than the initial insult of injury, treatment may need to be initiated after surgery, sustained over a period of time, and target multiple mechanisms in order to successfully alter the disease process. This study will assess whether a 6-month postoperative course of oral montelukast affects multiple PTOA mechanisms. Because montelukast administration can be safely sustained for long durations and offers a low-cost treatment option, should it be proven effective in the current trial, these results can be immediately incorporated into clinical practice.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04572256 . Registered on October 1, 2020.

Objective

To evaluate radiographic subchondral trabecular bone texture (TBT) as a predictor of clinically relevant osteoarthritis (OA) progression (combination of symptom and structural worsening).

Methods

The Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) OA Biomarkers Consortium undertook a study of progressive knee OA cases (n = 194 knees with both radiographic and pain progression over 24-48 months) and comparators (n = 406 OA knees not meeting the case definition). TBT parameters were extracted from a medial subchondral tibial region of interest by fractal signature analysis of radiographs using validated semiautomated software. Baseline TBT and time-integrated values over 12 and 24 months were evaluated for association with case status and separately with radiographic and pain progression status, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, race, baseline Kellgren/Lawrence grade, baseline joint space width, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain score, and pain medication use. C statistics were generated from receiver operating characteristic curves.

Results

Relative to comparators, cases were characterized by thinner vertical and thicker horizontal trabeculae. The summed composite of 3 TBT parameters at baseline and over 12 and 24 months best predicted case status (odds ratios 1.24-1.43). The C statistic for predicting case status using the TBT composite score (0.633-0.649) was improved modestly but statistically significantly over the use of covariates alone (0.608). One TBT parameter, reflecting thickened horizontal trabeculae in cases, at baseline and over 12 and 24 months, predicted risk of any progression (radiographic and/or pain progression).

Conclusion

Although associations are modest, TBT could be an attractive means of enriching OA trials for progressors since it can be generated from screening knee radiographs already standard in knee OA clinical trials.