Determining the proportion of a population at risk of inadequate or excessive nutrient intake is a crucial step in planning and managing nutrition intervention programs. Multiple days of 24-h dietary intake data per subject allow for adjustment of modeled usual nutrient intake distributions for the proportion of total variance in intake attributable to within-individual variation (WIV:total). When only single-day dietary data are available, an external adjustment factor can be used; however, WIV:total may vary by population, and use of incorrect WIV:total ratios may influence the accuracy of prevalence estimates and subsequent program impacts. WIV:total values were compiled from publications and from reanalyses of existing datasets to describe variation in WIV:total across populations and settings. The potential impact of variation in external WIV:total on estimates of prevalence of inadequacy was assessed through simulation analyses using the National Cancer Institute 1-d method. WIV:total values were extracted from 40 publications from 24 countries, and additional values were calculated from 15 datasets from 12 nations. Wide variation in WIV:total (from 0.02 to 1.00) was observed in publications and reanalyses. Few patterns by population characteristics were apparent, but WIV:total varied by age in children (< vs. >1 y) and between rural and urban settings. Simulation analyses indicated that estimates of the prevalence of inadequate intake are sensitive to the selected ratio in some cases. Selection of an external WIV:total estimate should consider comparability between the reference and primary studies with regard to population characteristics, study design, and statistical methods. Given wide variation in observed ratios with few discernible patterns, the collection of ≥2 days of intake data in at least a representative subsample in population dietary studies is strongly encouraged. In the case of single-day dietary studies, sensitivity analyses are recommended to determine the robustness of prevalence estimates to changes in the variance ratio.

Obesity is caused by a prolonged positive energy balance1,2. Whether reduced energy expenditure stemming from reduced activity levels contributes is debated3,4. Here we show that in both sexes, total energy expenditure (TEE) adjusted for body composition and age declined since the late 1980s, while adjusted activity energy expenditure increased over time. We use the International Atomic Energy Agency Doubly Labelled Water database on energy expenditure of adults in the United States and Europe (n = 4,799) to explore patterns in total (TEE: n = 4,799), basal (BEE: n = 1,432) and physical activity energy expenditure (n = 1,432) over time. In males, adjusted BEE decreased significantly, but in females this did not reach significance. A larger dataset of basal metabolic rate (equivalent to BEE) measurements of 9,912 adults across 163 studies spanning 100 years replicates the decline in BEE in both sexes. We conclude that increasing obesity in the United States/Europe has probably not been fuelled by reduced physical activity leading to lowered TEE. We identify here a decline in adjusted BEE as a previously unrecognized factor.

There is considerably greater variation in metabolic rates between men than between women, in terms of basal, activity and total (daily) energy expenditure (EE). One possible explanation is that EE is associated with male sexual characteristics (which are known to vary more than other traits) such as musculature and athletic capacity. Such traits might be predicted to be most prominent during periods of adolescence and young adulthood, when sexual behaviour develops and peaks. We tested this hypothesis on a large dataset by comparing the amount of male variation and female variation in total EE, activity EE and basal EE, at different life stages, along with several morphological traits: height, fat free mass and fat mass. Total EE, and to some degree also activity EE, exhibit considerable greater male variation (GMV) in young adults, and then a decreasing GMV in progressively older individuals. Arguably, basal EE, and also morphometrics, do not exhibit this pattern. These findings suggest that single male sexual characteristics may not exhibit peak GMV in young adulthood, however total and perhaps also activity EE, associated with many morphological and physiological traits combined, do exhibit GMV most prominently during the reproductive life stages.