This study reports on the results from efforts by the Institute of Electric and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Distribution Reliability Working Group (DRWG) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to improve the usefulness of reliability metrics by developing and then applying consistent, yet distinct measures of the continuity of supply based on the portion of the electric power system from which power interruptions originate: the lower voltage distribution system versus the high-voltage bulk power system. The modified metrics better support reliability planning in the US because they separately measure the effectiveness of actions to improve reliability made by the two distinct groups of firms (and their regulators or oversight bodies) that are responsible for planning and operating each portion of the US electric power system. The authors then present for the first time quantitative information on the reliability of each portion of the US electric power system. When reliability is measured using the system average interruption duration index and the system average interruption frequency index, they find that the distribution system accounts for at least 94 and 92%, respectively, of all interruptions. They also find that these relationships have been stable over the recent past.

There has been a limited amount of peer-reviewed literature on long-term trends in electricity reliability including the underlying factors that impact reliability across the United States. In this analysis, we considered up to 16 years of data from 203 U S. utilities—representing about 70% of electricity sales. Annual frequency of interruptions for an average customer—at the regional and U.S. national-level—has generally decreased over this timeframe. But we do not find that there is a statistically significant trend in the annual duration of interruptions for an average customer. We find that more explicit measures of severe weather are correlated with reliability. We are able to explain 7% and 16% of past variation in the reliability metrics system average interruption duration and frequency indices, respectively, is due to severe weather—a significant improvement over earlier studies. We find that current year spending by utilities is correlated with worse reliability and that cumulative spending over the preceding three years is correlated with better reliability. Finally, we demonstrate that using a statistical instrument to represent the annual frequency of interruptions for an average customer can greatly improve analysis of trends in the annual duration of interruptions for an average customer.

This study examines the relationship between annual changes in electricity reliability reported by a large cross-section of U.S. electricity distribution utilities over a period of 13 years and a broad set of potential explanatory variables, including weather and utility characteristics. We find statistically significant correlations between the average number of power interruptions experienced annually and above average wind speeds, precipitation, lightning strikes, and a measure of population density: customers per line mile. We also find significant relationships between the average number of minutes of power interruptions experienced and above average wind speeds, precipitation, cooling degree-days, and one strategy used to mitigate the impacts of severe weather: the amount of underground transmission and distribution line miles. Perhaps most importantly, we find a significant time trend of increasing annual average number of minutes of power interruptions over time—especially when interruptions associated with extreme weather are included. The research method described in this analysis can provide a basis for future efforts to project long-term trends in reliability and the associated benefits of strategies to improve grid resiliency to severe weather—both in the U.S. and abroad.