Inherent recipient factors, including pretransplant diagnosis, obesity and elevated pulmonary pressures, are established primary graft dysfunction (PGD) risks. We evaluated the relationship between preoperative lung injury biomarkers and PGD to gain further mechanistic insight in recipients. We performed a prospective cohort study of recipients in the Lung Transplant Outcomes Group enrolled between 2002 and 2010. Our primary outcome was Grade 3 PGD on Day 2 or 3. We measured preoperative plasma levels of five biomarkers (CC-16, sRAGE, ICAM-1, IL-8 and Protein C) that were previously associated with PGD when measured at the postoperative time point. We used multivariable logistic regression to adjust for potential confounders. Of 714 subjects, 130 (18%) developed PGD. Median CC-16 levels were elevated in subjects with PGD (10.1 vs. 6.0, p<0.001). CC-16 was associated with PGD in nonidiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (non-IPF) subjects (OR for highest quartile of CC-16: 2.87, 95% CI: 1.37, 6.00, p=0.005) but not in subjects with IPF (OR 1.38, 95% CI: 0.43, 4.45, p=0.59). After adjustment, preoperative CC-16 levels remained associated with PGD (OR: 3.03, 95% CI: 1.26, 7.30, p=0.013) in non-IPF subjects. Our study suggests the importance of preexisting airway epithelial injury in PGD. Markers of airway epithelial injury may be helpful in pretransplant risk stratification in specific recipients.

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a major cause of early mortality after lung transplant. We aimed to define objective estimates of PGD risk based on readily available clinical variables, using a prospective study of 11 centers in the Lung Transplant Outcomes Group (LTOG). Derivation included 1255 subjects from 2002 to 2010; with separate validation in 382 subjects accrued from 2011 to 2012. We used logistic regression to identify predictors of grade 3 PGD at 48/72 h, and decision curve methods to assess impact on clinical decisions. 211/1255 subjects in the derivation and 56/382 subjects in the validation developed PGD. We developed three prediction models, where low-risk recipients had a normal BMI (18.5-25 kg/m(2) ), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/cystic fibrosis, and absent or mild pulmonary hypertension (mPAP<40 mmHg). All others were considered higher-risk. Low-risk recipients had a predicted PGD risk of 4-7%, and high-risk a predicted PGD risk of 15-18%. Adding a donor-smoking lung to a higher-risk recipient significantly increased PGD risk, although risk did not change in low-risk recipients. Validation demonstrated that probability estimates were generally accurate and that models worked best at baseline PGD incidences between 5% and 25%. We conclude that valid estimates of PGD risk can be produced using readily available clinical variables.

The authors previously identified plasma plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) level as a quantitative lung injury biomarker in primary graft dysfunction (PGD). They hypothesized that plasma levels of PAI-1 used as a quantitative trait could facilitate discovery of genetic loci important in PGD pathogenesis. A two-stage cohort study was performed. In stage 1, they tested associations of loci with PAI-1 plasma level using linear modeling. Genotyping was performed using the Illumina CVD Bead Chip v2. Loci meeting a p < 5 × 10(-4) cutoff were carried forward and tested in stage 2 for association with PGD. Two hundred ninety-seven enrollees were evaluated in stage 1. Six loci, associated with PAI-1, were carried forward to stage 2 and evaluated in 728 patients. rs3168046 (Toll interacting protein [TOLLIP]) was significantly associated with PGD (p = 0.006). The increased risk of PGD for carrying at least one copy of this variant was 11.7% (95% confidence interval 4.9-18.5%). The false-positive rate for individuals with this genotype who did not have PGD was 6.1%. Variants in the TOLLIP gene are associated with higher circulating PAI-1 plasma levels and validate for association with clinical PGD. A protein quantitative trait analysis for PGD risk prioritizes genetic variations in TOLLIP and supports a role for Toll-like receptors in PGD pathogenesis.