A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance--measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network--is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks.

In recent years, graph theoretical analyses of neuroimaging data have increased our understanding of the organization of large-scale structural and functional brain networks. However, tools for pipeline application of graph theory for analyzing topology of brain networks is still lacking. In this report, we describe the development of a graph-analysis toolbox (GAT) that facilitates analysis and comparison of structural and functional network brain networks. GAT provides a graphical user interface (GUI) that facilitates construction and analysis of brain networks, comparison of regional and global topological properties between networks, analysis of network hub and modules, and analysis of resilience of the networks to random failure and targeted attacks. Area under a curve (AUC) and functional data analyses (FDA), in conjunction with permutation testing, is employed for testing the differences in network topologies; analyses that are less sensitive to the thresholding process. We demonstrated the capabilities of GAT by investigating the differences in the organization of regional gray-matter correlation networks in survivors of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and healthy matched Controls (CON). The results revealed an alteration in small-world characteristics of the brain networks in the ALL survivors; an observation that confirm our hypothesis suggesting widespread neurobiological injury in ALL survivors. Along with demonstration of the capabilities of the GAT, this is the first report of altered large-scale structural brain networks in ALL survivors.

In a complex behavioral system, such as an animal society, the dynamics of the system as a whole represent the synergistic interaction among multiple aspects of the society. We constructed multiple single-behavior social networks for the purpose of approximating from multiple aspects a single complex behavioral system of interest: rhesus macaque society. Instead of analyzing these networks individually, we describe a new method for jointly analyzing them in order to gain comprehensive understanding about the system dynamics as a whole. This method of jointly modeling multiple networks becomes valuable analytical tool for studying the complex nature of the interaction among multiple aspects of any system. Here we develop a bottom-up, iterative modeling approach based upon the maximum entropy principle. This principle is applied to a multi-dimensional link-based distributional framework, which is derived by jointly transforming the multiple directed behavioral social network data, for extracting patterns of synergistic inter-behavioral relationships. Using a rhesus macaque group as a model system, we jointly modeled and analyzed four different social behavioral networks at two different time points (one stable and one unstable) from a rhesus macaque group housed at the California National Primate Research Center (CNPRC). We report and discuss the inter-behavioral dynamics uncovered by our joint modeling approach with respect to social stability.

Migration is a powerful adaptive strategy for humans to navigate hardship and pursue a better quality of life. As a universal vehicle facilitating exchanges of ideas, culture, money and goods, international migration is a major contributor to globalization. Consisting of countries linked by multiple connections of human movements, global migration constitutes a network. Despite the important role of human migration in connecting various communities in different parts of the world, the topology and behavior of the international migration network and its changes through time remain poorly understood. Here we show that the global human migration network became more interconnected during the latter half of the twentieth century and that migrant destination choice partly reflects colonial and postcolonial histories, language, religion, and distances. From 1960 to 2000 we found a steady increase in network transitivity (i.e. connectivity between nodes connected to the same node), a decrease in average path length and an upward shift in degree distribution, all of which strengthened the 'small-world' behavior of the migration network. Furthermore, we found that distinct groups of countries preferentially interact to form migration communities based largely on historical, cultural and economic factors.

To achieve faculty status, graduating doctoral students have to substantially outperform their peers, given the competitive nature of the academic job market. In an ideal, meritocratic world, factors such as prestige of degree-granting university ought not to overly influence hiring decisions. However, it has recently been reported that top-ranked universities produced about 2-6 times more faculty than did universities that were ranked lower [1], which the authors claim suggests the use of un-meritocratic factors in the hiring process: how could students from top-ranked universities be six times more productive than their peers from lower-ranked universities? Here we present a signal detection model, supported by computer simulation and simple proof-of-concept example data from psychology departments in the U.S., to demonstrate that substantially higher rates of faculty production need not require substantially (and unrealistically) higher levels of student productivity. Instead, a high hiring threshold due to keen competition is sufficient to cause small differences in average student productivity between universities to result in manifold differences in placement rates. Under this framework, the previously reported results are compatible with a purely meritocratic system. Whereas these results do not necessarily mean that the actual faculty hiring market is purely meritocratic, they highlight the difficulty in empirically demonstrating that it is not so.

Some social connections are stronger than others. People have not only friends, but also best friends. Social scientists have long recognized this characteristic of social connections and researchers frequently use the term tie strength to refer to this concept. We used online interaction data (specifically, Facebook interactions) to successfully identify real-world strong ties. Ground truth was established by asking users themselves to name their closest friends in real life. We found the frequency of online interaction was diagnostic of strong ties, and interaction frequency was much more useful diagnostically than were attributes of the user or the user's friends. More private communications (messages) were not necessarily more informative than public communications (comments, wall posts, and other interactions).

Happiness and other emotions spread between people in direct contact, but it is unclear whether massive online social networks also contribute to this spread. Here, we elaborate a novel method for measuring the contagion of emotional expression. With data from millions of Facebook users, we show that rainfall directly influences the emotional content of their status messages, and it also affects the status messages of friends in other cities who are not experiencing rainfall. For every one person affected directly, rainfall alters the emotional expression of about one to two other people, suggesting that online social networks may magnify the intensity of global emotional synchrony.

Functional neuroimaging reveals both increases (task-positive) and decreases (task-negative) in neural activation with many tasks. Many studies show a temporal relationship between task positive and task negative networks that is important for efficient cognitive functioning. Here we provide evidence for a spatial relationship between task positive and negative networks. There are strong spatial similarities between many reported task negative brain networks, termed the default mode network, which is typically assumed to be a spatially fixed network. However, this is not the case. The spatial structure of the DMN varies depending on what specific task is being performed. We test whether there is a fundamental spatial relationship between task positive and negative networks. Specifically, we hypothesize that the distance between task positive and negative voxels is consistent despite different spatial patterns of activation and deactivation evoked by different cognitive tasks. We show significantly reduced variability in the distance between within-condition task positive and task negative voxels than across-condition distances for four different sensory, motor and cognitive tasks--implying that deactivation patterns are spatially dependent on activation patterns (and vice versa), and that both are modulated by specific task demands. We also show a similar relationship between positively and negatively correlated networks from a third 'rest' dataset, in the absence of a specific task. We propose that this spatial relationship may be the macroscopic analogue of microscopic neuronal organization reported in sensory cortical systems, and that this organization may reflect homeostatic plasticity necessary for efficient brain function.