The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission provides information on changes to the Earth’s gravity field, including ocean mass. Long-term trends in the GRACE data are often considered unreliable due to uncertainties in the corrections made to calculate ocean mass from the raw measurements. Here, we use an independent estimate of ocean mass from satellite altimetry and in situ density data from five mooring sites and repeat hydrography to validate trends in GRACE over the North Atlantic, finding substantial agreement between the methods. The root mean square difference between ocean mass changes calculated with this method from the mooring data and those measured by GRACE is 3.5 mm/decade, much lower than the mean signal of 15.6±1.8 mm/decade for GRACE and 17.8±5.2 mm/decade for the altimetry-mooring estimate. The GRACE ocean mass data are then used to study the change in the deep circulation of the North Atlantic between the 2002/04/01-2009/03/31 and 2010/04/01-2017/03/31 periods, revealing a large-scale anticyclonic circulation anomaly off the North American coast. The change is associated with an increase of 13.9 ± 3.3 Sv (1Sv = 106 m3 s −1) of southward North Atlantic Deep Water flow in the interior between 30◦N and 40◦N, largely balanced by a northward anomaly of 10.7±3.3 Sv for the boundary circulation.  This implies an increased importance of interior pathways compared to the Deep Western Boundary Current for the spreading of North Atlantic Deep Water, which constitutes the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

The Loop Current is the main mesoscale feature of the Gulf of Mexico oceanic circulation. With peak velocities above 1.5 m s–1, the Loop Current and its mesoscale eddies are of interest to fisheries, hurricane prediction and of special concern for the security of oil rig operations in the Gulf of Mexico, and therefore understanding their predictability is not only of scientific interest but also a major environmental security issue. Combining altimetric data and an eddy detection algorithm with 8 years of deep flow measurements through the Yucatan Channel, we developed a predictive model for the Loop Current extension in the following month that explains 74% of its variability. We also show that 4 clusters of velocity anomalies in the Yucatan Channel represent the Loop Current dynamics. A dipole with positive and negative anomalies towards the western side of the Channel represents the growing and retracted phases respectively, and two tripole shape clusters represent the transition phases, the one with negative anomalies in the center associated with 50% of the eddy separation events. The transition between these clusters is not equally probable, therefore adding predictability. Finally, we show that eddy separation probability begins when the Loop Current extends over 1800 km (~27.2°N), and over 2200 km of extension, eddy detachment and reattachment is more frequent than separation. These results represent a step forward towards having the best possible operational Loop Current forecast in the near future, incorporating near real-time data transmission of deep flow measurements and high resolution altimetric data.

We analyzed impacts of the 2014–2015 Pacific Warm Anomaly and 2015–2016 El Niño on physical and biogeochemical variables at two southern California Current System moorings (CCE2, nearshore upwelling off Point Conception; CCE1, offshore California Current). Nitrate and Chl-a fluorescence were <1 μM and <1 Standardized Fluorescence Unit, respectively, at CCE2 for the entire durations of the Warm Anomaly and El Niño, the two longest periods of such low values in our time series. Negative nitrate and Chl-a anomalies at CCE2 were interrupted briefly by upwelling conditions in spring 2015. Near-surface temperature anomalies appeared simultaneously at both moorings in spring 2014, indicating region-wide onset of Warm Anomaly temperatures, although sustained negative nitrate and Chl-a anomalies only occurred offshore at CCE1 during El Niño (summer 2015 to spring 2016). Warm Anomaly temperature changes were expressed more strongly in near-surface (<40 m) than subsurface (75 m) waters at both moorings, while El Niño produced comparable temperature anomalies at near-surface and subsurface depths. Nearshore Ωaragonite at 76 m showed notably fewer undersaturation events during both warm periods, suggesting an environment more conducive to calcifying organisms. Planktonic calcifying molluscs (pteropods and heteropods) increased markedly in springs 2014 and 2016 and remained modestly elevated in spring 2015. Moorings provide high-frequency measurements essential for resolving the onset timing of anomalous conditions and frequency and duration of short-term (days-to-weeks) perturbations (reduced nitrate and aragonite undersaturation events) that can affect marine organisms.