To estimate and understand recent subsidence, we collected elevation and soils data on Bacon and Sherman islands in 2006 at locations of previous elevation measurements. Measured subsidence rates on Sherman Island from 1988 to 2006 averaged 1.23 cm/year (0.5 in/yr) and ranged from 0.7 to 1.7 cm/year (0.3 to 0.7 in/year). Subsidence rates on Bacon Island from 1978 to 2006 averaged 2.2 cm/year (0.9 in/yr) and ranged from 1.5 to 3.7 cm/year (0.6 to 1.5 in/yr). Changing land-management practices and decreasing soil organic matter content have resulted in decreasing subsidence rates. On Sherman Island, rates from 1988 to 2006 were about 35% of 1910 to 1988 rates. For Bacon Island, rates from 1978 to 2006 were about 40% less than the 1926-1958 rates. To help understand causes and estimate future subsidence, we developed a subsidence model, SUBCALC, that simulates oxidation and carbon losses, consolidation, wind erosion, and burning and changing soil organic matter content. SUBCALC results agreed well with measured land-surface elevation changes. We predicted elevation decreases from 2007 to 2050 will range from a few centimeters to over 1.3 m (4.3 ft). The largest elevation declines will occur in the central Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. From 2007 to 2050, the most probable estimated increase in volume below sea level is 349,956,000 million cubic meters (281,300 acre-feet). Consequences of this continuing subsidence include increased drainage loads of water quality constituents of concern, seepage onto islands, and decreased arability.

In light of desired implementation of subsidence mitigation practices on Delta islands and the need for evaluation tools, we developed groundwater-flow and solute-transport models and attempted to answer the following questions.

1. How do the groundwater-flow and drainage systems interact to influence island drainage volumes and drain dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and loads?

2. How will future subsidence affect drainage volumes, DOC loads, and seepage onto islands?

3. How will land-use changes to mitigate subsidence affect seepage, drain flow, and DOC loads?

4. How can seepage and water-quality effects from drainage, restoration, and rice cultivation on Delta islands be minimized?

We used hydrologic and geochemical data and modeling to answer these questions. Subsurface processes dominate subsided Delta island hydrology. Seepage and siphoned irrigation water recharge groundwater, which flows to drains. Drainage water that contains DOC derived from oxidation of organic soils is discharged to adjacent channels. We analyzed the effects of subsidence mitigation by simulating mosaics of rice and palustrine wetlands with varying hydrologic management on a representative subsided island (Twitchell Island). These alternative land uses reduce seepage onto islands and thus contribute to increased levee stability. However, most scenarios resulted in increased drain flow and DOC loads. Reducing drain flow is essential to reducing DOC loads relative to the business-as-usual scenario and can be accomplished through hydrologic controls that reduce drain flow on the islands.

From 2000 to 2003 we quantified drain flow, drain-and ground-water chemistry and hydrogeologic conditions on Twitchell Island in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The primary objective was to quantify processes affecting organic carbon concentrations and loads in agricultural drainage water. We collected physical and chemical data in southern and northern areas: TN and TS, respectively. Corn grew in both areas during the spring and summer. The peat soils in the TN area are more decomposed than those in the TS area. Results elucidate processes affecting drain flow and concentrations under varying hydrologic conditions. During May through November, groundwater flows from the permanently saturated zone to drainage ditches, and the resulting average drainage-water quality and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration was similar to the groundwater; the median DOC loads in the TN and TS study areas ranged from 9 to 27 g C/ha-day. The major ion chemistry and stable isotope data confirmed that groundwater was the primary source of drainflow. In contrast, during December through April the drainwater is supplied from the shallow, variably saturated soil-zone. The DOC concentrations, major-ion chemistry, and stable isotope data indicate that the shallow-zone water is partially evaporated and oxidized. Higher flows and DOC concentrations during these months result in higher median DOC loads, which ranged from 84 to 280 g C/ha-day.

During December through April, increasing groundwater levels in the shallow peat layers and mobilization of organic carbon result in high drain flow and increased trihalomethane precursor concentrations and loads. On a per mass DOC basis, drain water collected during high flow periods is less likely to form THMs than during low flow periods. However, the high flows and subsequent high concentrations contribute to substantially higher trihalomethane precursor and DOC loads.