The time when energy-related carbon emissions come overwhelmingly from developed countries is coming to a close. China has already overtaken the United States as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gas emissions. The economic growth that China has experienced is not expected to slow down significantly in the long term, which implies continued massive growth in energy demand. This paper draws on the extensive expertise from the China Energy Group at LBNL on forecasting energy consumption in China, but adds to it by exploring the dynamics of demand growth for electricity in the residential sector -- and the realistic potential for coping with it through efficiency. This paper forecasts ownership growth of each product using econometric modeling, in combination with historical trends in China. The products considered (refrigerators, air conditioners, fans, washing machines, lighting, standby power, space heaters, and water heating) account for 90percent of household electricity consumption in China. Using this method, we determine the trend and dynamics of demand growth and its dependence on macroeconomic drivers at a level of detail not accessible by models of a more aggregate nature. In addition, we present scenarios for reducing residential consumption through efficiency measures defined at the product level. The research takes advantage of an analytical framework developed by LBNL (BUENAS) which integrates end use technology parameters into demand forecasting and stock accounting to produce detailed efficiency scenarios, thus allowing for a technologically realistic assessment of efficiency opportunities specifically in the Chinese context.

Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

The US Department of Energy (US DOE) has placed lighting and appliance standards at a very high priority of the U.S. energy policy. However, the maximum energy savings and CO2 emissions reduction achievable via minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) has not yet been fully characterized. The Bottom Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS), first developed in 2007, is a global, generic, and modular tool designed to provide policy makers with estimates of potential impacts resulting from MEPS for a variety of products, at the international and/or regional level. Using the BUENAS framework, we estimated potential national energy savings and CO2 emissions mitigation in the US residential sector that would result from the most aggressive policy foreseeable: standards effective in 2014 set at the current maximum technology (Max Tech) available on the market. This represents the most likely characterization of what can be maximally achieved through MEPS in the US. The authors rely on the latest Technical Support Documents and Analytical Tools published by the U.S. Department of Energy as a source to determine appliance stock turnover and projected efficiency scenarios of what would occur in the absence of policy. In our analysis, national impacts are determined for the following end uses: lighting, television, refrigerator-freezers, central air conditioning, room air conditioning, residential furnaces, and water heating. The analyzed end uses cover approximately 65percent of site energy consumption in the residential sector (50percent of the electricity consumption and 80percent of the natural gas and LPG consumption). This paper uses this BUENAS methodology to calculate that energy savings from Max Tech for the U.S. residential sector products covered in this paper will reach an 18percent reduction in electricity demand compared to the base case and 11percent in Natural Gas and LPG consumption by 2030 The methodology results in reductions in CO2 emissions of a similar magnitude.

This paper presents an analysis of the potential impacts of an international initiative designed to support and promote the development and implementation of appliances standards and labelling programs throughout the world. As part of previous research efforts, LBNL developed the Bottom Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS), an analysis framework that estimates impact potentials of energy efficiency policies on a global scale. In this paper, we apply this framework to an initiative that would result in the successful implementation of programs focused on high priority regions and product types, thus evaluating the potential impacts of such an initiative in terms of electricity savings and carbon mitigation in 2030. In order to model the likely parameters of such a program, we limit impacts to a five year period starting in 2009, but assume that the first 5 years of a program will result in implementation of 'best practice' minimum efficiency performance standards by 2014. The 'high priority' regions considered are: Brazil, China, the European Union, India, Mexico and the United States. The products considered are: refrigerators, air conditioners, lighting (both fluorescent and incandescent), standby power (for consumer electronics) and televisions in the residential sector, and air conditioning and lighting in commercial buildings. In 2020, these regions and enduses account for about 37percent of global residential electricity and 29percent of electricity in commercial buildings. We find that 850Mt of CO2 could be saved in buildings by 2030 compared to the baseline forecast.