The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) exhibits well-known spatial displacements in response to anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although dynamic and thermodynamic changes during ENSO events are consistent with observed SPCZ shifts, explanations for these displacements have been largely qualitative. This study applies a theoretical framework based on generalizing arguments about the relationship between the zonal-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and atmospheric energy transport (AET) to 2D, permitting quantification of SPCZ displacements during ENSO. Using either resolved atmospheric energy fluxes or estimates of column-integrated moist energy sources, this framework predicts well the observed SPCZ shifts during ENSO, at least when anomalous ENSO-region SSTs are relatively small. In large-amplitude ENSO events, such as the 1997/98 El Niño, the framework breaks down because of the large change in SPCZ precipitation intensity. The AET framework permits decomposition of the ENSO forcing into various components, such as column radiative heating versus surface turbulent fluxes, and local versus remote contributions. Column energy source anomalies in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific dominate the SPCZ shift. Furthermore, although the radiative flux anomaly is larger than the surface turbulent flux anomaly in the SPCZ region, the radiative flux anomaly, which can be viewed as a feedback on the ENSO forcing, accounts for slightly less than half of SPCZ precipitation anomalies during ENSO. This study also introduces an idealized analytical model used to illustrate AET anomalies during ENSO and to obtain a scaling for the SPCZ response to an anomalous equatorial energy source.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 and associated global warming are expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, thereby posing widespread threats to freshwater availability. However, future hydrological projections differ greatly between models, particularly over the tropical regions. The large difference between model projections directly limits policy planning efforts, and the responsible modeling processes remain unclear. Here, we identify the primary processes accounting for model differences in tropical hydrological changes using multiple CO2 sensitivity experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We show that differences in projected changes to tropical evapotranspiration, precipitation, and surface water availability mainly arise from model representations of vegetation cover and stomatal conductance responses to elevated CO2 and associated changes in atmospheric moisture and circulation. Atmospheric responses to sea surface warming contribute additionally to the divergence in hydrological projections. Given the importance of vegetation responses to elevated CO2 and associated atmosphere feedbacks, our results underscore the need to improve representations of the vegetation physiological response to rising CO2 and its coupling to the atmosphere, to provide reliable tropical hydrological projections.

The strengthening of monsoonal southerlies over East Asia is associated with the westward intensification of the North Pacific subtropical high. Previous work has shown that the seasonal-mean position and strength of subtropical highs are affected by tropical and subtropical diabatic heating. Here it is shown that the synoptic-time-scale strengthening of southerlies over eastern China is dynamically tied to extratropical eddy activity. Composite analysis based on strong southerly wind events highlights an antecedent baroclinic wave train propagating southeastward into eastern China from extratropical central Asia. This wave train generates quasigeostrophic ascent over eastern China that is associated with heavy precipitation. The anomalously cold upper-tropospheric conditions associated with the wave train decrease static stability throughout the lower and middle troposphere in eastern China, while low-level moistening enhances equivalent potential temperature. It is proposed that the resulting reductions in dry andmoist static stability intensify the eddy-induced precipitating ascent. These results illustrate how East Asian monsoon circulation and precipitation can be enhanced by the interaction of midlatitude baroclinic waves with the moist subtropical monsoon region.

Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications. However, the extent to which this seasonal paradigm holds over land remains unclear. Here we examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation, P-E) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections. While the P-E seasonal cycle does broadly intensify over much of the land surface, ~20% of land area experiences a diminished seasonal cycle, mostly over subtropical regions and the Amazon. Using land-atmosphere coupling experiments, we demonstrate that 63% of the seasonality reduction is driven by seasonally varying soil moisture (SM) feedbacks on P-E. Declining SM reduces evapotranspiration and modulates circulation to enhance moisture convergence and increase P-E in the dry season but not in the wet season. Our results underscore the importance of SM-atmosphere feedbacks for seasonal water availability changes in a warmer climate.

Global warming alters surface water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P–E) and hence freshwater resources. However, the influence of land–atmosphere feedbacks on future P–E changes and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we demonstrate that soil moisture (SM) strongly impacts future P–E changes, especially in drylands, by regulating evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture inflow. Using modelling and empirical approaches, we find a consistent negative SM feedback on P–E, which may offset ~60% of the decline in dryland P–E otherwise expected in the absence of SM feedbacks. The negative feedback is not caused by atmospheric thermodynamic responses to declining SM; rather, reduced SM, in addition to limiting evapotranspiration, regulates atmospheric circulation and vertical ascent to enhance moisture transport into drylands. This SM effect is a large source of uncertainty in projected dryland P–E changes, underscoring the need to better constrain future SM changes and improve the representation of SM–atmosphere processes in models.

In the version of this Article originally published, the multiplication symbol was mistakenly used instead of the dot product in equations (1) and (4)–(11). This has now been corrected in the online versions of the Article.