We examine the effect of variability in model parameters on
the predictions of expected utility theory and cumulative
prospect theory, two of the most influential choice models in
decision making research. We find that zero-mean and
symmetrically distributed noise in the underlying parameters
of these models can systematically distort choice
probabilities, leading to false conclusions. Likewise,
differences in choice proportions across decision makers
might be due to differences in the amount of noise affecting
underlying parameters rather than to differences in actual
parameter values. Our results suggest that care and caution
are needed when trying to infer the underlying preferences of
decision makers, or the effects of psychological, biological,
economic, and demographic variables on these preferences.