It has been theorized that people, as decision-makers with limited cognitive resources, may represent value and probability in an adaptive way, thus exhibiting context-dependent decision biases. However, most theoretical models and empirical tests only focused on contextual effects within single dimensions, such as the influence of the value context on the utility function or that of the probability context on the probability distortion function. Here we investigated potential cross-dimensional as well as within-dimensional contextual effects in a series of experiments of decision under risk. Each participant was tested on gambles with factorially-designed values and probabilities so that we could simultaneously estimate their utility and probability distortion functions. Across participants we manipulated the mean and variance of the distribution of the gamble values. We found not only within-dimensional effects of the value context on the utility function, but also cross-dimensional effects of the value context on the probability distortion function.

To cope with the pandemic, we need first to predict it. How does the human brain model epidemic dynamics? In February and March 2020, we conducted an online diary study, where each participant completed 14 days of predictions about the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in China. Over 400 Chinese adults participated in our study, spanning a total of 40 days. On the group level, we find participants’ predictions of the ending date of the epidemic are correlated with daily new cases. Modeling analysis shows that participants’ predictions agree with a Gaussian process model that generalizes observed case numbers to the future by similarity-based function learning, but deviate from an ideal epidemic model. On the individual level, we find individuals’ pandemic predictions are correlated with their psychological traits or states, such as future time perspective and negative emotions (anxiety, depression, and stress).