On April 5, 2005, a voluntary agreement between the automobile industry and government officials of Canada was reached to commit to greenhouse gas emission reductions through the year 2010. This report compares Canada’s voluntary agreement with other voluntary and mandatory greenhouse gas reduction programs around the world in terms of what technologies are likely to be deployed and how much vehicle fuel consumption is likely to improve. It investigates various methods and measurement approaches for implementing the agreement, incorporating the potential effects of criteria pollutant emission reductions, fuel use modifications (including the effects of lower sulfur fuels and ethanol), and vehicle technology adoption (including mobile air conditioning systems). The findings of this study suggest that the decisions of the official MOU oversight committee on how to credit various existing automobile technology trends could substantially impact total emission reductions and the deployment of fuel efficiency technology in Canada. Based on the committee’s determinations, Canada’s voluntary agreement could result in substantially improved fuel economy, or it could have little or no effect. This analysis raises broader questions regarding the efficacy and effectiveness of voluntary agreements, relative to regulatory initiatives.

Past automotive trends, ongoing technology breakthroughs, and recent announcements by automakers make it clear that reducing the mass of automobiles is a critical technology objective for vehicle performance, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and fuel economy. Vehicle mass-reduction technology offers the potential to reduce the mass of vehicles without compromise in other vehicle attributes, like acceleration, size, cargo capacity, or structural integrity. As regulatory agencies continue to assess more stringent CO2 and fuel economy standards for the future, it is unclear the exact extent to which vehicle mass-reduction technology will be utilized alongside other efficiency technologies like advanced combustion and hybrid system technology. This report reviews ongoing automotive trends, research literature, and advanced concepts for vehicle mass optimization in an attempt to better characterize where automobiles – and their mass in particular – might be headed.

The California Air Resources Board's emissions inventory estimates indicate that ambient air quality in several regions of California is substantially affected by the exhaust emissions of diesel trucks. There are insufficient data to accurately model the energy and emissions impacts of interstate-traveling trucks, many of which may be registered and/or fuel out-of-state. Emissions inventory estimates are based on adjustments to data on California-registered trucks. These estimates may not reflect the effect of non-California-registered trucks' attributes and operations. Further, the effects of out-of-state fueling by California-registered and non-California-registered interstate-traveling trucks are also not currently captured. In Summer 2006, an interview survey of 433 truck drivers was conducted to characterize the vehicle attributes and operations of interstate trucks that travel in California. We estimate that non-California-registered trucks account for more than one-quarter of the Class 8 heavy-duty truck mileage on California roads. Also more than one-quarter of all Class 8 heavy-duty truck mileage in California is fueled by out-of-state diesel. The effects of this are disproportionately concentrated in four air basins – the Mojave Desert, South Coast, the Sacramento Valley, and the San Joaquin Valley – with considerable ambient air quality issues.

Governments worldwide and in the U.S. are enacting a variety of measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from various economic sectors. Tools to prioritize these measures are generally lacking in analytical rigor. On the other hand, the research literature continues to proliferate with assessments of energy efficiency and GHG mitigation options that can be adapted to the policy evaluation process. This dissertation formulates an analytical method to better prioritize future climate change policy actions.

A framework is developed to integrate current research on climate change mitigation technology alternatives from all sectors of the U.S. economy on an equal footing. Applying consistent economic assumptions, a multi-benefit cost-effectiveness accounting tool is developed that simultaneously evaluates the technology costs, lifetime energy saving benefits, and GHG reductions in a single cost-per-tonne-reduced metric. The framework synthesizes the disparate studies’ data to compare and prioritize options across sectors as well as determine the aggregate impacts from multiple sectors’ GHG mitigation actions.

A broad portfolio of cost-effective technologies is available from each major sector of the economy. The findings indicate that there are many net-beneficial “no regrets” climate change mitigation technologies – where the energy savings of the technologies outweigh the initial costs – and most of these technologies are not being widely adopted. Transportation technologies are found to represent approximately half of the “no regrets” mitigation opportunities and about one-fifth of the least-cost GHG mitigation measures to achieve the benchmark 1990 GHG level. With the adoption of known near-term technologies, GHG emissions by 2030 could be reduced by 14% with net-zero-cost technologies, and emissions could be reduced by about 30% with technologies that each have net costs less than $30 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent reduced.

On April 5, 2005, a voluntary agreement between the automobile industry and government officials of Canada was reached to commit to greenhouse gas emission reductions through the year 2010. This report compares Canada's voluntary agreement with other voluntary and mandatory greenhouse gas reduction programs around the world in terms of what technologies are likely to be deployed and how much vehicle fuel consumption is likely to improve. It investigates various methods and measurement approaches for implementing the agreement, incorporating the potential effects of criteria pollutant emission reductions, fuel use modifications (including the effects of lower sulfur fuels and ethanol), and vehicle technology adoption (including mobile air conditioning systems). The findings of this study suggest that the decisions of the official MOU oversight committee on how to credit various existing automobile technology trends could substantially impact total emission reductions and the deployment of fuel efficiency technology in Canada. Based on the committee's determinations, Canada's voluntary agreement could result in substantially improved fuel economy, or it could have little or no effect. This analysis raises broader questions regarding the efficacy and effectiveness of voluntary agreements, relative to regulatory initiatives.

The 2005 voluntary agreement between the automobile industry and Canadian government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles is evaluated. We analyze the likely effect of the agreement on emissions, and on use of biofuels and advanced vehicle technologies. We conclude that the impact on emissions could be far less than suggested, possibly even zero, even if automobile companies fully comply. The pros and cons of the Canadian agreement are assessed and compared with other voluntary and mandatory greenhouse gas reduction programs. Some lessons learned include the importance of specific performance metrics to evaluate progress, use of precise baseline measurements and methods, and an appreciation of the asymmetry in information between most governments and the affected industries.

Many diverse actions can be taken to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Increasingly in the United States, policy-makers at sub-national levels are setting emission targets and implementing plans for sector-specific GHG reductions. In this paper, local, state, and regional policy actions in the US are inventoried and analyzed as to their potential effect on national emissions. The realization of all existing sub-national initiatives, as of September 2007, could stabilize US emissions at 2010 levels by the year 2020. The scale of these many decentralized mitigation actions, and their tendency to follow consistent steps, provide a counterpoint to oft-cited drawbacks of decentralized environmental policy. It also indicates that the US has been more committed to climate change mitigation than is generally acknowledged.

Transportation presents a substantial and growing worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emission challenge. GHG mitigation strategies can be grouped into three categories: vehicle efficiency, low carbon fuels, and travel reduction. Potential GHG reductions are very large, with varying levels of cost effectiveness. Virtually all provide large cobenefits, including energy cost savings, oil security, and pollution reduction.