Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossil-pollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs in these instances, especially when models were fit with sparse calibration datasets. Additionally, CLMs did not over-fit training data, unlike SDMs. The expected emergence of novel climates presents a major forecasting challenge for all models, but CLMs may better rise to this challenge by borrowing information from co-occurring taxa.

Human impacts have left and are leaving distinctive imprints in the geological record. Here we show that in North America, the human-caused changes evident in the mammalian fossil record since c. 14,000 years ago are as pronounced as earlier faunal changes that subdivide Cenozoic epochs into the North American Land Mammal Ages (NALMAs). Accordingly, we define two new North American Land Mammal Ages, the Santarosean and the Saintagustinean, which subdivide Holocene time and complete a biochronologic system that has proven extremely useful in dating terrestrial deposits and in revealing major features of faunal change through the past 66 million years. The new NALMAs highlight human-induced changes to the Earth system, and inform the debate on whether or not defining an Anthropocene epoch is justified, and if so, when it began.