California's dairy sector accounts for ∼50% of anthropogenic CH₄ emissions in the state's greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory. Although California dairy facilities' location and herd size vary over time, atmospheric inverse modeling studies rely on decade-old facility-scale geospatial information. For the first time, we apply artificial intelligence (AI) to aerial imagery to estimate dairy CH₄ emissions from California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV), a region with ∼90% of the state's dairy population. Using an AI method, we process 316,882 images to estimate the facility-scale herd size across the SJV. The AI approach predicts herd size that strongly (>95%) correlates with that made by human visual inspection, providing a low-cost alternative to the labor-intensive inventory development process. We estimate SJV's dairy enteric and manure CH₄ emissions for 2018 to be 496-763 Gg/yr (mean = 624; 95% confidence) using the predicted herd size. We also apply our AI approach to estimate CH₄ emission reduction from anaerobic digester deployment. We identify 162 large (90th percentile) farms and estimate a CH₄ reduction potential of 83 Gg CH₄/yr for these large facilities from anaerobic digester adoption. The results indicate that our AI approach can be applied to characterize the manure system (e.g., use of an anaerobic lagoon) and estimate GHG emissions for other sectors.

The dairy industry in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) is one of California’s largest methane (CH4) sources. Reducing dairy emissions is a priority for the state’s climate change plans. Observations of current dairy CH4 emissions are key to monitoring actions taken toward this goal. To help support this, we present new ground-based measurements of atmospheric column-averaged CH4 mixing ratio (XCH4) gradients across a group of 600 dairies in the central SJV using EM27/SUN solar spectrometers. We used measurements from the 2019 summer and 2020 winter seasons for a top-down emission inversion based on the WRF-STILT model. Our top-down estimates of the region’s dairy emissions range from 90% to 183% of the current CALGEM inventory’s emissions of 277 Gg/yr. In contrast to the strong temperature dependence found by earlier dairy CH4 emission studies, we also find that our top-down emissions during the winter measurement days are comparable to the summer measurement days, possibly due to seasonal changes in dairy management practices and meteorological conditions. Furthermore, we find significant interday variability in our measurements and find that our emission estimates overlap with earlier top-down studies and bottom-up inventories in this region. Our study demonstrates how analysis of ground-based remotely sensed CH4 gradient observations can help improve our understanding of CH4 sources at scales relevant to mitigation policy. It also reflects the need for long-term monitoring of CH4 emissions in the region and at individual facilities to better understand their emissions.