BACKGROUND: There are multiple clinical and radiographic factors that influence outcomes after endovascular reperfusion therapy (ERT) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We sought to derive and validate an outcome prediction score for AIS patients undergoing ERT based on readily available pretreatment and posttreatment factors. METHODS: The derivation cohort included 511 patients with anterior circulation AIS treated with ERT at 10 centers between September 2009 and July 2011. The prospective validation cohort included 223 patients with anterior circulation AIS treated in the North American Solitaire Acute Stroke registry. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors of good outcome (modified Rankin score ≤2 at 3 months) in the derivation cohort; model β coefficients were used to assign points and calculate a risk score. Discrimination was tested using C statistics with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in the derivation and validation cohorts. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and plots of observed to expected outcomes. We assessed the net reclassification improvement for the derived score compared to the Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE) score. Subgroup analysis in patients with pretreatment Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) and posttreatment final infarct volume measurements was also performed to identify whether these radiographic predictors improved the model compared to simpler models. RESULTS: Good outcome was noted in 186 (36.4%) and 100 patients (44.8%) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Combining readily available pretreatment and posttreatment variables, we created a score (acronym: SNARL) based on the following parameters: symptomatic hemorrhage [2 points: none, hemorrhagic infarction (HI)1-2 or parenchymal hematoma (PH) type 1; 0 points: PH2], baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (3 points: 0-10; 1 point: 11-20; 0 points: >20), age (2 points: <60 years; 1 point: 60-79 years; 0 points: >79 years), reperfusion (3 points: Thrombolysis In Cerebral Ischemia score 2b or 3) and location of clot (1 point: M2; 0 points: M1 or internal carotid artery). The SNARL score demonstrated good discrimination in the derivation (C statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.83) and validation cohorts (C statistic 0.74, 95% CI 0.68-0.81) and was superior to the THRIVE score (derivation cohort: C statistic 0.65, 95% CI 0.60-0.70; validation cohort: C-statistic 0.59, 95% CI 0.52-0.67; p < 0.01 in both cohorts) but was inferior to a score that included age, ASPECTS, reperfusion status and final infarct volume (C statistic 0.86, 95% CI 0.82-0.91; p = 0.04). Compared with the THRIVE score, the SNARL score resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 34.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Among AIS patients treated with ERT, pretreatment scores such as the THRIVE score provide only fair prognostic information. Inclusion of posttreatment variables such as reperfusion and symptomatic hemorrhage greatly influences outcome and results in improved outcome prediction.

Background

Endovascular treatment with mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is beneficial for patients with acute stroke suffering a large-vessel occlusion, although treatment efficacy is highly time-dependent. We hypothesized that interhospital transfer to endovascular-capable centers would result in treatment delays and worse clinical outcomes compared with direct presentation.

Methods

STRATIS (Systematic Evaluation of Patients Treated With Neurothrombectomy Devices for Acute Ischemic Stroke) was a prospective, multicenter, observational, single-arm study of real-world MT for acute stroke because of anterior-circulation large-vessel occlusion performed at 55 sites over 2 years, including 1000 patients with severe stroke and treated within 8 hours. Patients underwent MT with or without intravenous tissue plasminogen activator and were admitted to endovascular-capable centers via either interhospital transfer or direct presentation. The primary clinical outcome was functional independence (modified Rankin Score 0-2) at 90 days. We assessed (1) real-world time metrics of stroke care delivery, (2) outcome differences between direct and transfer patients undergoing MT, and (3) the potential impact of local hospital bypass.

Results

A total of 984 patients were analyzed. Median onset-to-revascularization time was 202.0 minutes for direct versus 311.5 minutes for transfer patients (P<0.001). Clinical outcomes were better in the direct group, with 60.0% (299/498) achieving functional independence compared with 52.2% (213/408) in the transfer group (odds ratio, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.79; P=0.02). Likewise, excellent outcome (modified Rankin Score 0-1) was achieved in 47.4% (236/498) of direct patients versus 38.0% (155/408) of transfer patients (odds ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.92; P=0.005). Mortality did not differ between the 2 groups (15.1% for direct, 13.7% for transfer; P=0.55). Intravenous tissue plasminogen activator did not impact outcomes. Hypothetical bypass modeling for all transferred patients suggested that intravenous tissue plasminogen activator would be delayed by 12 minutes, but MT would be performed 91 minutes sooner if patients were routed directly to endovascular-capable centers. If bypass is limited to a 20-mile radius from onset, then intravenous tissue plasminogen activator would be delayed by 7 minutes and MT performed 94 minutes earlier.

Conclusions

In this large, real-world study, interhospital transfer was associated with significant treatment delays and lower chance of good outcome. Strategies to facilitate more rapid identification of large-vessel occlusion and direct routing to endovascular-capable centers for patients with severe stroke may improve outcomes.

Clinical trial registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02239640.