Given globalization and other social phenomena, controlling the spread of infectious diseases has become an imperative public health priority. A plethora of interventions that in theory can mitigate the spread of pathogens have been proposed and applied. Evaluating the effectiveness of such interventions is costly and in many circumstances unrealistic. Most important, the community effect (i.e., the ability of the intervention to minimize the spread of the pathogen from people who received the intervention to other community members) can rarely be evaluated. Here we propose a study design that can build and evaluate evidence in support of the community effect of an intervention. The approach exploits molecular evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in order to track new infections as having arisen from either a control or an intervention group. It enables us to evaluate whether an intervention reduces the number and length of new transmission chains in comparison with a control condition, and thus lets us estimate the relative decrease in new infections in the community due to the intervention. We provide as an example one working scenario of a way the approach can be applied with a simulation study and associated power calculations.

Ukraine has one of the largest HIV epidemics in Europe, historically driven by people who inject drugs (PWID). The epidemic showed signs of stabilization in 2012, but the recent war in eastern Ukraine may be reigniting virus spread. We investigated the movement of HIV-infected people within Ukraine before and during the conflict. We analyzed HIV-1 subtype-A pol nucleotide sequences sampled during 2012-2015 from 427 patients of 24 regional AIDS centers and used phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct virus movement among different locations in Ukraine. We then tested for correlations between reported PWID behaviors and reconstructed patterns of virus spread. Our analyses suggest that Donetsk and Lugansk, two cities not controlled by the Ukrainian government in eastern Ukraine, were significant exporters of the virus to the rest of the country. Additional analyses showed that viral dissemination within the country changed after 2013. Spearman correlation analysis showed that incoming virus flow was correlated with the number of HIV-infected internally displaced people. Additionally, there was a correlation between more intensive virus movement and locations with a higher proportion of PWID practicing risky sexual behaviors. Our findings suggest that effective prevention responses should involve internally displaced people and people who frequently travel to war-affected regions. Scale-up of harm reduction services for PWID will be an important factor in preventing new local HIV outbreaks in Ukraine.

Objectives

To determine protease mutations that develop at viral failure for protease inhibitor (PI)-naive patients on a regimen containing the PI atazanavir.

Methods

Resistance tests on patients failing atazanavir, conducted as part of routine clinical care in a multicentre observational study, were randomly matched by subtype to resistance tests from PI-naive controls to account for natural polymorphisms. Mutations from the consensus B sequence across the protease region were analysed for association and defined using the IAS-USA 2011 classification list.

Results

Four hundred and five of 2528 (16%) patients failed therapy containing atazanavir as a first PI over a median (IQR) follow-up of 1.76 (0.84-3.15) years and 322 resistance tests were available for analysis. Recognized major atazanavir mutations were found in six atazanavir-experienced patients (P < 0.001), including I50L and N88S. The minor mutations most strongly associated with atazanavir experience were M36I, M46I, F53L, A71V, V82T and I85V (P < 0.05). Multiple novel mutations, I15S, L19T, K43T, L63P/V, K70Q, V77I and L89I/T/V, were also associated with atazanavir experience.

Conclusions

Viral failure on atazanavir-containing regimens was not common and major resistance mutations were rare, suggesting that adherence may be a major contributor to viral failure. Novel mutations were described that have not been previously documented.