This paper synthesizes available data on historical and planned power plant retirements. Specifically, we present data on historical generation capacity additions and retirements over time, and the types of plants recently retired and planned for retirement. We then present data on the age of plants that have recently retired or that have plans to retire. We also review the characteristics of plants that recently retired or plan to retire vs. those that continue to operate, focusing on plant size, age, heat rate, and SO2 emissions. Finally, we show the level of recent thermal plant retirements on a regional basis and correlate those data with a subset of possible factors that may be contributing to retirement decisions. This basic data synthesis cannot be used to precisely estimate the relative magnitude of retirement drivers. Nor do we explore every possible driver for retirement decisions. Moreover, future retirement decisions may be influenced by different factors than those that have affected past decisions. Nonetheless, it is clear that recently retired plants are relatively old, and that plants with stated planned retirement dates are—on average—no younger. We observe that retired plants are smaller, older, less efficient, and more polluting than operating plants. Based on simple correlation graphics, the strongest predictors of regional retirement differences appear to include SO2 emissions rates (for coal), planning reserve margins (for all thermal units), variations in load growth or contraction (for all thermal units), and the age of older thermal plans (for all thermal units). Additional apparent predictors of regional retirements include the ratio of coal to gas prices and delivered natural gas prices. Other factors appear to have played lesser roles, including the penetration variable renewable energy (VRE), recent non-VRE capacity additions, and whether the region hosts an ISO/RTO.

We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is a complex area of research and there is much more to be done to increase understanding of how VRE impacts the dynamics of current and future electricity markets. While more analysis is warranted, including additional location-specific assessments, several high-level findings emerge from this synthesis: -VRE Is Already Impacting the Bulk Power Market -VRE Impacts on Average Wholesale Prices Have Been Modest -VRE Impacts on Power Plant Retirements Have So Far Been Limited -VRE Impacts on the Bulk Power Market will Grow with Penetration -The ’System Value’ of VRE will Decline with Penetration -Power System Flexibility Can Reduce the Rate of VRE Value Decline All generation types are unique in some respect—bringing benefits and challenges to the power system—and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply.

Demand charges, which are based on a customer’s maximum demand in kilowatts (kW), are a common element of electricity rate structures for commercial customers. Customer-sited solar photovoltaic (PV) systems can potentially reduce demand charges, but the level of savings is difficult to predict, given variations in demand charge designs, customer loads, and PV generation profiles. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are collaborating on a series of studies to understand how solar PV can impact demand charges. Prior studies in the series examined demand charge reductions from solar on a stand-alone basis for residential and commercial customers. Those earlier analyses found that solar, alone, has limited ability to reduce demand charges depending on the specific design of the demand charge and on the shape of the customer’s load profile. This latest analysis estimates demand charge savings from solar in commercial buildings when co-deployed with behind-the-meter storage, highlighting the complementary roles of the two technologies. The analysis is based on simulated loads, solar generation, and storage dispatch across a wide variety of building types, locations, system configurations, and demand charge designs.

Increasing the penetration of photovoltaics (PV) reduces the marginal grid value of PV electricity. Various strategies have been proposed for preserving this value. We analyze the net value (accounting for both cost and grid value) of these strategies in the USA. We find that established and emerging strategies designed to shift the timing of standalone PV generation at the expense of total generation - including orienting monofacial PV modules west or bifacial modules vertically - result in minor net-value benefits or penalties. Adding energy storage to such systems magnifies the net-value loss, because configurations that change the timing of PV production become redundant when the energy-shifting capabilities of storage are added. The largest net-value gains come from strategies that maximize generation (solar tracking plus oversized PV arrays) in conjunction with storage, especially at high PV penetrations. PV systems are long-lived assets. Our results suggest that efforts to promote generation-maximizing strategies today may yield increasing netvalue benefits as U.S. PV and storage deployments continue to accelerate over the coming decades.

Increasing the penetration of photovoltaics (PV) reduces the marginal grid value of PV electricity. The declining grid value of PV with higher penetration could limit the technology's economic attractiveness and future demand. Various strategies have been proposed for preserving this value. Using a consistent framework, we analyze the net value (accounting for both cost and grid value) of more than ten strategies in the United States. Here, grid value is estimated from coincident wholesale power market prices and PV generation using observed historical prices or modeled future prices with up to 30% PV penetration. We find that established and emerging strategies designed to shift the timing of standalone PV generation at the expense of total generation—including orienting monofacial PV modules west or bifacial modules vertically—result in minor net-value benefits or penalties. Adding energy storage to such systems magnifies the net-value loss, because configurations that change the timing of PV production become redundant when the energy-shifting capabilities of storage are added. The largest net-value gains come from strategies that maximize generation (solar tracking plus oversized PV arrays) in conjunction with storage, especially at high PV penetrations. PV systems are long-lived assets. Our results suggest that efforts to promote generation-maximizing strategies today may yield increasing net-value benefits as PV and storage deployments continue to accelerate in the United States over the coming decades.