Observations of trace gases from space-based instruments offer the opportunity to constrain chemical and weather forecast and reanalysis models using the tools of data assimilation. In this study, observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are performed to investigate the potential of high space- and time-resolution column measurements as constraints on urban NOx emissions. The regional chemistry-meteorology assimilation system where meteorology and chemical variables are simultaneously assimilated is comprised of a chemical transport model, WRF-Chem, the Data Assimilation Research Testbed, and a geostationary observation simulator. We design OSSEs to investigate the sensitivity of emission inversions to the accuracy and uncertainty of the wind analyses and the emission updating scheme. We describe the overall model framework and some initial experiments that point out the first steps toward an optimal configuration for improving our understanding of NOx emissions by combining space-based measurements and data assimilation. Among the findings we describe is the dependence of errors in the estimated NOx emissions on the wind forecast errors, showing that wind vectors with a RMSE below 1 m s-1 allow inference of NOx emissions with a RMSE of less than 30 mol/(km2 × h) at the 3 km scale of the model we use. We demonstrate that our inference of emissions is more accurate when we simultaneously update both NOx emissions and NOx concentrations instead of solely updating emissions. Furthermore, based on our analyses, we recommend carrying out meteorology assimilations to stabilize NO2 transport from the initial wind errors before starting the emission assimilation. We show that wind uncertainties (calculated as a spread around a mean wind) are not important for estimating NOx emissions when the wind uncertainties are reduced below 1.5 m s-1. Finally, we present results assessing the role of separate vs. simultaneous chemical and meteorological assimilation in a model framework without covariance between the meteorology and chemistry.

Observations of winds in the planetary boundary layer remain sparse making it challenging to simulate and predict atmospheric conditions that are most important for describing and predicting urban air quality. Short-lived chemicals are observed as plumes whose location is affected by boundary layer winds and whose lifetime is affected by boundary layer height and mixing. Here we investigate the application of data assimilation of NO2 columns as will be observed from geostationary orbit to improve predictions and retrospective analysis of wind fields in the boundary layer.

This paper introduces the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with chemistry/Data Assimilation Research Testbed (WRF-Chem/DART) chemical transport forecasting/data assimilation system together with the assimilation of compact phase space retrievals of satellite-derived atmospheric composition products. WRF-Chem is a state-of-the-art chemical transport model. DART is a flexible software environment for researching ensemble data assimilation with different assimilation and forecast model options. DART's primary assimilation tool is the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. WRF-Chem/DART is applied to the assimilation of Terra/Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide (CO) trace gas retrieval profiles. Those CO observations are first assimilated as quasi-optimal retrievals (QORs). Our results show that assimilation of the CO retrievals (i) reduced WRF-Chem's CO bias in retrieval and state space, and (ii) improved the CO forecast skill by reducing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and increasing the Coefficient of Determination (R2). Those CO forecast improvements were significant at the 95 % level.

Trace gas retrieval data sets contain (i) large amounts of data with limited information content per observation, (ii) error covariance cross-correlations, and (iii) contributions from the retrieval prior profile that should be removed before assimilation. Those characteristics present challenges to the assimilation of retrievals. This paper addresses those challenges by introducing the assimilation of compact phase space retrievals (CPSRs). CPSRs are obtained by preprocessing retrieval data sets with an algorithm that (i) compresses the retrieval data, (ii) diagonalizes the error covariance, and (iii) removes the retrieval prior profile contribution. Most modern ensemble assimilation algorithms can efficiently assimilate CPSRs. Our results show that assimilation of MOPITT CO CPSRs reduced the number of observations (and assimilation computation costs) by g 1/4 g ¯35 %, while providing CO forecast improvements comparable to or better than with the assimilation of MOPITT CO QORs.