We investigated wind-wave and suspended-sediment dynamics in Little Holland Tract and Liberty Island, two subsided former agricultural tracts in the Cache Slough complex in the northern Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta which were restored to tidal shallows to improve habitat. Turbidity, and thus suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), is important to habitat quality because some species of native fishes, including the Delta Smelt, are found preferentially in more turbid waters. Data from October 2015 to August 2016 show that average SSC was greater within Little Holland Tract than in the primary breach that connects the basin to surrounding channels: approximately twice as great at a shallower station farther from the breach and 15% greater at a deeper station closer to the breach. Suspended-sediment concentration within Little Holland Tract was directly related to wave shear stress and inversely related to water depth, based on linear regression. We used measurements of suspended-sediment flux (SSF) through the largest levee breaches to assess whether the enhanced SSC within Little Holland Tract is exported to surrounding waters, thus potentially increasing turbidity over a wider region. Cumulatively, sediment is exported through the Little Holland Tract breaches in winter and imported in summer, consistent with regional patterns in sediment flux, indicating that wind-wave re-suspension within the basin does not control sediment flux from Little Holland Tract on seasonal time-scales. Some sediment was exported during wind-wave events, and results show that sediment export is greater when primary breaches are located downwind of the basin rather than upwind.

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species' persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010-2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18-85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.