Prospective validation of methods for computing binding affinities can help assess their predictive power and thus set reasonable expectations for their performance in drug design applications. Supramolecular host-guest systems are excellent model systems for testing such affinity prediction methods, because their small size and limited conformational flexibility, relative to proteins, allows higher throughput and better numerical convergence. The SAMPL4 prediction challenge therefore included a series of host-guest systems, based on two hosts, cucurbit[7]uril and octa-acid. Binding affinities in aqueous solution were measured experimentally for a total of 23 guest molecules. Participants submitted 35 sets of computational predictions for these host-guest systems, based on methods ranging from simple docking, to extensive free energy simulations, to quantum mechanical calculations. Over half of the predictions provided better correlations with experiment than two simple null models, but most methods underperformed the null models in terms of root mean squared error and linear regression slope. Interestingly, the overall performance across all SAMPL4 submissions was similar to that for the prior SAMPL3 host-guest challenge, although the experimentalists took steps to simplify the current challenge. While some methods performed fairly consistently across both hosts, no single approach emerged as consistent top performer, and the nonsystematic nature of the various submissions made it impossible to draw definitive conclusions regarding the best choices of energy models or sampling algorithms. Salt effects emerged as an issue in the calculation of absolute binding affinities of cucurbit[7]uril-guest systems, but were not expected to affect the relative affinities significantly. Useful directions for future rounds of the challenge might involve encouraging participants to carry out some calculations that replicate each others' studies, and to systematically explore parameter options.

Molecular dynamics simulations are helpful tools for a range of applications, ranging from drug discovery to protein structure determination. The successful use of this technology largely depends on the potential function, or force field, used to determine the potential energy at each configuration of the system. Most force fields encode all of the relevant parameters to be used in distinct atom types, each associated with parameters for all parts of the force field, typically bond stretches, angle bends, torsions, and nonbonded terms accounting for van der Waals and electrostatic interactions. Much attention has been paid to the nonbonded parameters and their derivation, which are important in particular due to their governance of noncovalent interactions, such as protein-ligand binding. Parametrization involves adjusting the nonbonded parameters to minimize the error between simulation results and experimental properties, such as heats of vaporization and densities of neat liquids. In this setting, determining the best set of atom types is far from trivial, and the large number of parameters to be fit for the atom types in a typical force field can make it difficult to approach a true optimum. Here, we utilize a previously described Minimal Basis Iterative Stockholder (MBIS) method to carry out an atoms-in-molecules partitioning of electron densities. Information from these atomic densities is then mapped to Lennard-Jones parameters using a set of mapping parameters much smaller than the typical number of atom types in a force field. This approach is advantageous in two ways: it eliminates atom types by allowing each atom to have unique Lennard-Jones parameters, and it greatly reduces the number of parameters to be optimized. We show that this approach yields results comparable to those obtained with the typed GAFF 1.7 force field, even when trained on a relatively small amount of experimental data.