Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.

Despite their broad distribution across the North Pacific Ocean, the only known spawning grounds for Pacific Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus orientalis) are around coastal Japan and the East China Sea. However, an increase in the prevalence of large bluefin tuna up to 10 years old in the California Current System during exceptionally warm ocean conditions has led to speculation that they may be spawning in this region. To investigate this possibility, we collected samples from 36 females (estimated 3-8 years old) between 2015 and 2019. Histological analyses revealed no signs of imminent, active, or recent spawning. Further examination of historical ichthyoplankton collections showed no records of larval bluefin tuna, but confirmed the presence of the larvae of other tuna species in waters > 24°C. Fishery-dependent records showed that bluefin tuna are rarely recorded in purse seine catches where surface temperatures exceed 23°C. Our study, therefore, provided no evidence of bluefin tuna reproduction in the CCS. However, more comprehensive sampling, in particular off southern Baja California, may be required to confirm the absence of spawning.

Juvenile North Pacific Albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) support commercial and recreational fisheries in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), where they forage during summer and fall. The distributions of the commercial and recreational fisheries and estimates of forage availability have varied substantially over the past century. Time-series quantifying Albacore diet can help link forage composition to variability in Albacore abundance and distribution and, consequently, their availability to fishers. Previous diet studies in the CCLME are of relatively short duration, and long-term variability in Albacore diet remains poorly understood. We describe the diets of juvenile Albacore from three regions in the CCLME from 2007 to 2019 and use classification and regression tree analysis to explore environmental drivers of variability. Important prey include Northern Anchovy (Engraulis mordax), rockfishes (Sebastes spp.), Boreal Clubhook Squid (Onychoteuthis borealijaponica), euphausiids (Order: Euphausiidae), and amphipods (Order: Amphipoda), each contributing >5% mean proportional abundance. Most prey items were short lived species or young-of-the-year smaller than 10 cm. Diet variability was related to environmental conditions over the first 6 months of the year (PDO, sea surface temperature, and NPGO) and conditions concurrent with Albacore capture (region and surface nitrate flux). We describe foraging flexibility over regional and annual scales associated with these environmental influences. Continuous, long-term studies offer the opportunity to identify flexibility in Albacore foraging behavior and begin to make a predictive link between environmental conditions early in the year and Albacore foraging during summer and fall.

Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.

Large predators frequent the open ocean where subsurface light drives visually based trophic interactions. However, we lack knowledge on how predators achieve energy balance in the unproductive open ocean where prey biomass is minimal in well-lit surface waters but high in dim midwaters in the form of scattering layers. We use an interdisciplinary approach to assess how the bioenergetics of scattering layer forays by a model predator vary across biomes. We show that the mean metabolic cost rate of daytime deep foraging dives to scattering layers decreases as much as 26% from coastal to pelagic biomes. The more favorable energetics offshore are enabled by the addition of a shallow scattering layer that, if not present, would otherwise necessitate costlier dives to deeper layers. The unprecedented importance of this shallow scattering layer challenges assumptions that the globally ubiquitous primary deep scattering layer constitutes the only mesopelagic resource regularly targeted by apex predators.

Among the largest fish species, the basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus) is found circumglobally in temperate and tropical waters. Though historical documents have recorded their presence in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), basking sharks are now only rarely observed in this part of their range. We compiled recent and historical data from systematic surveys (1962–1997) and other sources (1973–2018) to (i) examine temporal patterns of basking shark sightings in the CCE, and (ii) determine the spatial, temporal, and environmental drivers that have affected basking shark presence and distribution here for the last 50 years. We first calculated variation in basking shark sightings and school size over time. We then generated species distribution models using the systematic survey data and evaluated the performance of these models against the more recent non-systematic sightings data. The sightings records indicated that the number of shark sightings was variable across years, but the number and probability of sightings declined in the mid-1980s. The systematic survey data showed up to nearly 4,000 sharks sighted per year until the 1990s, after which there were no sightings reported. In parallel, there was more than a 50% decline in school size from the 1960s to the 1980s (57.2 to 24.0 individuals per group). During the subsequent decades in the non-systematic data (>1990), less than 60 sharks were sighted per year. There were no schools larger than 10 reported, and the mean school size in the last decade (2010s) was 3.53 individuals per group. Low sea surface temperature and high chlorophyll a concentration increased sightings probability, and prevailing climatic oscillations (El Nino-Southern Oscillation index, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) were also correlated with basking shark presence. Lastly, we observed a significant shift in the seasonality of sightings, from the fall and spring during the systematic survey period to the summer months after the 2000s. We conclude by offering suggestions for future research and conservation efforts; specifically, coordinating the documentation of fisheries mortalities and sightings throughout the Pacific basin would facilitate more robust population estimates and identify sources of mortality. Additionally, monitoring shark fin markets and developing region-specific genetic markers would help ensure that convention on international trade in endangered species (CITES) regulations are being followed.

Ensuring the long-term sustainability of tuna, billfish, and other transboundary fisheries resources begins with data on the status of stocks, as well as information concerning who catches what fish, when, where, and how. Despite recent improvements in fisheries monitoring and surveillance, such dynamics remain poorly understood across the high seas. Here we delineate and describe pelagic longline activity in the Pacific Ocean using a framework that integrates descriptive vessel information and tracking data with species-specific catch reports. When parsed by distinct vessel behaviors and attributes, disaggregated fisheries data highlight the existence of multi-national, multi-specific (i.e., targeting multiple species) fishing fleets, many of which target waters that span more than one management area. Our findings emphasize the need for increased coordination across regional and sub-regional governance bodies and suggest that effective and equitable management of the sector may require efforts to move beyond single-species, single-area controls and operational distinctions based primarily on vessel flag and/or gear type alone.

Marine fisheries around the globe are increasingly exposed to external drivers of social and ecological change. Though diversification and flexibility have historically helped marine resource users negotiate risk and adversity, much of modern fisheries management treats fishermen as specialists using specific gear types to target specific species. Here, we describe the evolution of harvest portfolios amongst Pacific Northwest fishermen over 35+ years with explicit attention to changes in the structure and function of the albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Scombridae) troll and pole-and-line fishery. Our analysis indicates that recent social–ecological changes have had heterogenous impacts upon the livelihood strategies favoured by different segments of regional fishing fleets. As ecological change and regulatory reform have restricted access to a number of fisheries, many of the regional small (<45 ft) and medium (45–60 ft) boat fishermen who continue to pursue diverse livelihood strategies have increasingly relied upon the ability to opportunistically target albacore in coastal waters while retaining more of the value generated by such catch. In contrast, large vessels (>60 ft) targeting albacore are more specialized now than previously observed, even as participation in multiple fisheries has become increasingly common for this size class. In describing divergent trajectories associated with the albacore fishery, one of the US West Coast's last open-access fisheries, we highlight the diverse strategies and mechanisms utilized to sustain fisheries livelihoods in the modern era while arguing that alternative approaches to management and licensing may be required to maintain the viability of small-scale fishing operations worldwide moving forward.

The management and conservation of tuna and other transboundary marine species have to date been limited by an incomplete understanding of the oceanographic, ecological and socioeconomic factors mediating fishery overlap and interactions, and how these factors vary across expansive, open ocean habitats. Despite advances in fisheries monitoring and biologging technology, few attempts have been made to conduct integrated ecological analyses at basin scales relevant to pelagic fisheries and the highly migratory species they target. Here, we use vessel tracking data, archival tags, observer records, and machine learning to examine inter- and intra-annual variability in fisheries overlap (2013–2020) of five pelagic longline fishing fleets with North Pacific albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga, Scombridae). Although progressive declines in catch and biomass have been observed over the past several decades, the North Pacific albacore is one of the only Pacific tuna stocks primarily targeted by pelagic longlines not currently listed as overfished or experiencing overfishing. We find that fishery overlap varies significantly across time and space as mediated by (1) differences in habitat preferences between juvenile and adult albacore; (2) variation of oceanographic features known to aggregate pelagic biomass; and (3) the different spatial niches targeted by shallow-set and deep-set longline fishing gear. These findings may have significant implications for stock assessment in this and other transboundary fishery systems, particularly the reliance on fishery-dependent data to index abundance. Indeed, we argue that additional consideration of how overlap, catchability, and size selectivity parameters vary over time and space may be required to ensure the development of robust, equitable, and climate-resilient harvest control rules.

Forage fishes are key energy conduits that transfer primary and secondary productivity to higher trophic levels. As novel environmental conditions caused by climate change alter ecosystems and predator-prey dynamics, there is a critical need to understand how forage fish control bottom-up forcing of food web dynamics. In the northeast Pacific, northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) is an important forage species with high interannual variability in population size that subsequently impacts the foraging and reproductive ecology of marine predators. Anchovy habitat suitability from a species distribution model (SDM) was assessed as an indicator of the diet, distribution and reproduction of four predator species. Across 22 years (1998-2019), this anchovy ecosystem indicator (AEI) was significantly positively correlated with diet composition of all species and the distribution of common murres (Uria aalge), Brandts cormorants (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) and California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), but not rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata). The capacity for the AEI to explain variability in predator reproduction varied by species but was strongest with cormorants and sea lions. The AEI demonstrates the utility of forage SDMs in creating ecosystem indicators to guide ecosystem-based management.