Background

Bayesian relaxed-clock dating has significantly influenced our understanding of the timeline of biotic evolution. This approach requires the use of priors on the branching process, yet little is known about their impact on divergence time estimates. We investigated the effect of branching priors using the iconic cycads. We conducted phylogenetic estimations for 237 cycad species using three genes and two calibration strategies incorporating up to six fossil constraints to (i) test the impact of two different branching process priors on age estimates, (ii) assess which branching prior better fits the data, (iii) investigate branching prior impacts on diversification analyses, and (iv) provide insights into the diversification history of cycads.

Results

Using Bayes factors, we compared divergence time estimates and the inferred dynamics of diversification when using Yule versus birth-death priors. Bayes factors were calculated with marginal likelihood estimated with stepping-stone sampling. We found striking differences in age estimates and diversification dynamics depending on prior choice. Dating with the Yule prior suggested that extant cycad genera diversified in the Paleogene and with two diversification rate shifts. In contrast, dating with the birth-death prior yielded Neogene diversifications, and four rate shifts, one for each of the four richest genera. Nonetheless, dating with the two priors provided similar age estimates for the divergence of cycads from Ginkgo (Carboniferous) and their crown age (Permian). Of these, Bayes factors clearly supported the birth-death prior.

Conclusions

These results suggest the choice of the branching process prior can have a drastic influence on our understanding of evolutionary radiations. Therefore, all dating analyses must involve a model selection process using Bayes factors to select between a Yule or birth-death prior, in particular on ancient clades with a potential pattern of high extinction. We also provide new insights into the history of cycad diversification because we found (i) periods of extinction along the long branches of the genera consistent with fossil data, and (ii) high diversification rates within the Miocene genus radiations.

PREMISE: New sequencing technologies facilitate the generation of large-scale molecular data sets for constructing the plant tree of life. We describe a new probe set for target enrichment sequencing to generate nuclear sequence data to build phylogenetic trees with any flagellate land plants, including hornworts, liverworts, mosses, lycophytes, ferns, and all gymnosperms. METHODS: We leveraged existing transcriptome and genome sequence data to design the GoFlag 451 probes, a set of 56,989 probes for target enrichment sequencing of 451 exons that are found in 248 single-copy or low-copy nuclear genes across flagellate plant lineages. RESULTS: Our results indicate that target enrichment using the GoFlag451 probe set can provide large nuclear data sets that can be used to resolve relationships among both distantly and closely related taxa across the flagellate land plants. We also describe the GoFlag 408 probes, an optimized probe set covering 408 of the 451 exons from the GoFlag 451 probe set that is commercialized by RAPiD Genomics. CONCLUSIONS: A target enrichment approach using the new probe set provides a relatively low-cost solution to obtain large-scale nuclear sequence data for inferring phylogenetic relationships across flagellate land plants.