The purpose of this work is to make a case for epidemiological models with fractional exponent in the contribution of sub-populations to the incidence rate. More specifically, we question the standard assumption in the literature on epidemiological models, where the incidence rate dictating propagation of infections is taken to be proportional to the product between the infected and susceptible sub-populations; a model that relies on strong mixing between the two groups and widespread contact between members of the groups. We contend, that contact between infected and susceptible individuals, especially during the early phases of an epidemic, takes place over a (possibly diffused) boundary between the respective sub-populations. As a result, the rate of transmission depends on the product of fractional powers instead. The intuition relies on the fact that infection grows in geographically concentrated cells, in contrast to the standard product model that relies on complete mixing of the susceptible to infected sub-populations. We validate the hypothesis of fractional exponents (1) by numerical simulation for disease propagation in graphs imposing a local structure to allowed disease transmissions and (2) by fitting the model to the JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data for the period Jan-22-20 to April-30-20, for the countries of Italy, Germany, France, and Spain.

The purpose of this work is to make a case for epidemiological models with fractional exponent in the contribution of sub-populations to the transmission rate. More specifically, we question the standard assumption in the literature on epidemiological models, where the transmission rate dictating propagation of infections is taken to be proportional to the product between the infected and susceptible sub-populations; a model that relies on strong mixing between the two groups and widespread contact between members of the groups. We content, that contact between infected and susceptible individuals, especially during the early phases of an epidemic, takes place over a (possibly diffused) boundary between the respective sub-populations. As a result, the rate of transmission depends on the product of fractional powers instead. The intuition relies on the fact that infection grows in geographically concentrated cells, in contrast to the standard product model that relies on complete mixing of the susceptible to infected sub-populations. We validate the hypothesis of fractional exponents i) by numerical simulation for disease propagation in graphs imposing a local structure to allowed disease transmissions and ii) by fitting the model to a COVID-19 data set provided by John Hopkins University (JHUCSSE) for the period Jan-31-20 to Mar-24-20, for the countries of Italy, Germany, Iran, and France.

PURPOSE: To assess the safety and tolerability of preoperative cryoablation-mediated tumor antigen presentation and/or ipilimumab-mediated immune modulation in women with operable breast cancer. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: In this pilot study, 19 women with breast cancer for whom mastectomy was planned were treated with preoperative tumor cryoablation (n = 7), single-dose ipilimumab at 10 mg/kg (n = 6), or both (n = 6). The primary outcome for this pilot study was safety/tolerability as defined as freedom from delays in pre-planned, curative-intent mastectomy. Exploratory studies of immune activation were performed on peripheral blood and tumor. RESULTS: Preoperative cryoablation and/or ipilimumab were safe and tolerable, with no delays in pre-planned surgery. Grade III toxicity was seen in 1 of 19 (unrelated rash after ipilimumab). Combination therapy was associated with sustained peripheral elevations in: Th1-type cytokines, activated (ICOS+) and proliferating (Ki67+) CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, and posttreatment proliferative T-effector cells relative to T-regulatory cells within tumor. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative cryoablation and single-dose ipilimumab are safe alone or in combination with no surgical delays incurred. Potentially favorable intratumoral and systemic immunologic effects were observed with the combination, suggesting the possibility for induced and synergistic antitumor immunity with this strategy. Clin Cancer Res; 22(23); 5729-37. ©2016 AACR.

Background

Genetic isolates such as the Ashkenazi Jews (AJ) potentially offer advantages in mapping novel loci in whole genome disease association studies. To analyze patterns of genetic variation in AJ, genotypes of 101 healthy individuals were determined using the Affymetrix EAv3 500 K SNP array and compared to 60 CEPH-derived HapMap (CEU) individuals. 435,632 SNPs overlapped and met annotation criteria in the two groups.

Results

A small but significant global difference in allele frequencies between AJ and CEU was demonstrated by a mean FST of 0.009 (P < 0.001); large regions that differed were found on chromosomes 2 and 6. Haplotype blocks inferred from pairwise linkage disequilibrium (LD) statistics (Haploview) as well as by expectation-maximization haplotype phase inference (HAP) showed a greater number of haplotype blocks in AJ compared to CEU by Haploview (50,397 vs. 44,169) or by HAP (59,269 vs. 54,457). Average haplotype blocks were smaller in AJ compared to CEU (e.g., 36.8 kb vs. 40.5 kb HAP). Analysis of global patterns of local LD decay for closely-spaced SNPs in CEU demonstrated more LD, while for SNPs further apart, LD was slightly greater in the AJ. A likelihood ratio approach showed that runs of homozygous SNPs were approximately 20% longer in AJ. A principal components analysis was sufficient to completely resolve the CEU from the AJ.

Conclusion

LD in the AJ versus was lower than expected by some measures and higher by others. Any putative advantage in whole genome association mapping using the AJ population will be highly dependent on regional LD structure.

In early-stage breast cancer, the degree of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) predicts response to chemotherapy and overall survival. Combination immunotherapy with immune checkpoint antibody plus tumor cryoablation can induce lymphocytic infiltrates and improve survival in mice. We used T-cell receptor (TCR) DNA sequencing to evaluate both the effect of cryoimmunotherapy in humans and the feasibility of TCR sequencing in early-stage breast cancer. In a pilot clinical trial, 18 women with early-stage breast cancer were treated preoperatively with cryoablation, single-dose anti-CTLA-4 (ipilimumab), or cryoablation + ipilimumab. TCRs within serially collected peripheral blood and tumor tissue were sequenced. In baseline tumor tissues, T-cell density as measured by TCR sequencing correlated with TIL scores obtained by hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining. However, tumors with little or no lymphocytes by H&E contained up to 3.6 × 106 TCR DNA sequences, highlighting the sensitivity of the ImmunoSEQ platform. In this dataset, ipilimumab increased intratumoral T-cell density over time, whereas cryoablation ± ipilimumab diversified and remodeled the intratumoral T-cell clonal repertoire. Compared with monotherapy, cryoablation plus ipilimumab was associated with numerically greater numbers of peripheral blood and intratumoral T-cell clones expanding robustly following therapy. In conclusion, TCR sequencing correlates with H&E lymphocyte scoring and provides additional information on clonal diversity. These findings support further study of the use of TCR sequencing as a biomarker for T-cell responses to therapy and for the study of cryoimmunotherapy in early-stage breast cancer. Cancer Immunol Res; 4(10); 835-44. ©2016 AACR.

Polymorphous low-grade adenocarcinoma (PLGA) is the second most frequent type of malignant tumor of the minor salivary glands. We identified PRKD1 hotspot mutations encoding p.Glu710Asp in 72.9% of PLGAs but not in other salivary gland tumors. Functional studies demonstrated that this kinase-activating alteration likely constitutes a driver of PLGA.

Acquired mutations are pervasive across normal tissues. However, understanding of the processes that drive transformation of certain clones to cancer is limited. Here we study this phenomenon in the context of clonal hematopoiesis (CH) and the development of therapy-related myeloid neoplasms (tMNs). We find that mutations are selected differentially based on exposures. Mutations in ASXL1 are enriched in current or former smokers, whereas cancer therapy with radiation, platinum and topoisomerase II inhibitors preferentially selects for mutations in DNA damage response genes (TP53, PPM1D, CHEK2). Sequential sampling provides definitive evidence that DNA damage response clones outcompete other clones when exposed to certain therapies. Among cases in which CH was previously detected, the CH mutation was present at tMN diagnosis. We identify the molecular characteristics of CH that increase risk of tMN. The increasing implementation of clinical sequencing at diagnosis provides an opportunity to identify patients at risk of tMN for prevention strategies.