Background

Childhood tuberculosis (TB) diagnoses often lack microbiologic confirmation and require empiric treatment. Barriers to empiric treatment include concern for poor outcomes and adverse effects. We thus determined the outcomes of empiric TB treatment from a retrospective cohort of children at a national referral hospital in Kampala, Uganda from 2010 to 2015.

Methods

Children were diagnosed clinically and followed through treatment. Demographics, clinical data, outcome and any adverse events were extracted from patient charts. A favorable outcome was defined as a child completing treatment with clinical improvement. We performed logistic regression to assess factors associated with loss to follow up and death.

Results

Of 516 children, median age was 36 months (IQR 15-73), 55% (95% CI 51-60%) were male, and HIV prevalence was 6% (95% CI 4-9%). The majority (n = 422, 82, 95% CI 78-85%) had a favorable outcome, with no adverse events that required treatment discontinuation. The most common unfavorable outcomes were loss to follow-up (57/94, 61%) and death (35/94, 37%; overall mortality 7%). In regression analysis, loss to follow up was associated with age 10-14 years (OR 2.38, 95% CI 1.15-4.93, p = 0.02), HIV positivity (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.41-7.92, p = 0.01), hospitalization (OR 4.14, 95% CI 2.08-8.25, p < 0.001), and living outside of Kampala (OR 2.64, 95% CI 1.47-4.71, p = 0.001). Death was associated with hospitalization (OR 4.57, 95% CI 2.0-10.46, p < 0.001), severe malnutrition (OR 2.98, 95% CI 1.07-8.27, p = 0.04), baseline hepatomegaly (OR 4.11, 95% CI 2.09-8.09, p < 0.001), and living outside of Kampala (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.17-4.96, p = 0.02).

Conclusions

Empiric treatment of child TB was effective and safe, but treatment success remained below the 90% target. Addressing co-morbidities and improving retention in care may reduce unfavorable outcomes.

Background

Seasonality in tuberculosis (TB) has been described, especially in children. However, few studies have assessed seasonality of TB in the equatorial region, and none in children.

Objectives

To assess for seasonality of childhood TB cases in Kampala, Uganda, and determine the role of temperature, rainfall patterns, and influenza cases on TB diagnoses.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed demographic and clinical data of children (under 15 years) diagnosed with TB at a pediatric TB clinic in Kampala, Uganda from 2010 to 2015. We performed decomposition analysis of the monthly case time series to assess seasonality. We compared monthly mean plots and performed Poisson regression to assess any association between TB diagnoses and temperature, rainfall, and influenza.

Results

Of the 713 childhood TB cases diagnosed at the clinic, 609 (85%) were clinically diagnosed and 492 (69%) were pulmonary cases. There were minimal monthly variations in TB cases, with a trough in December and peaks in July and October, but there was no significant seasonality. Temperature variations did not show a clear pattern with TB diagnoses. Rainfall alternated with TB diagnoses in the first half of the year, but then overlapped in the second half and was significantly associated with TB diagnoses. Influenza cases were significantly related to TB diagnoses with (β = 0.05, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09, p = 0.01) or without (β = 0.06, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.1, p = 0.01) rainfall, and had particular overlap with pulmonary TB cases.

Conclusions

Seasonal variations in childhood TB diagnoses were non-significant. Temperature did not have a clear pattern with TB diagnoses, but rainfall and influenza cases correlated with the primarily clinically diagnosed childhood TB cases.

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