Tumors frequently display high chromosomal instability and contain multiple copies of genomic regions. Here, we describe Gain Route Identification and Timing In Cancer (GRITIC), a generic method for timing genomic gains leading to complex copy number states, using single-sample bulk whole-genome sequencing data. By applying GRITIC to 6,091 tumors, we found that non-parsimonious evolution is frequent in the formation of complex copy number states in genome-doubled tumors. We measured chromosomal instability before and after genome duplication in human tumors and found that late genome doubling was followed by an increase in the rate of copy number gain. Copy number gains often accumulate as punctuated bursts, commonly after genome doubling. We infer that genome duplications typically affect the landscape of copy number losses, while only minimally impacting copy number gains. In summary, GRITIC is a novel copy number gain timing framework that permits the analysis of copy number evolution in chromosomally unstable tumors. Significance: Complex genomic gains are associated with whole-genome duplications, which are frequent across tumors, span a large fraction of their genomes, and are linked to poorer outcomes. GRITIC infers when these gains occur during tumor development, which will help to identify the genetic events that drive tumor evolution. See related commentary by Taylor, p. 1766.

Elaboration of Bayesian phylogenetic inference methods has continued at pace in recent years with major new advances in nearly all aspects of the joint modelling of evolutionary data. It is increasingly appreciated that some evolutionary questions can only be adequately answered by combining evidence from multiple independent sources of data, including genome sequences, sampling dates, phenotypic data, radiocarbon dates, fossil occurrences, and biogeographic range information among others. Including all relevant data into a single joint model is very challenging both conceptually and computationally. Advanced computational software packages that allow robust development of compatible (sub-)models which can be composed into a full model hierarchy have played a key role in these developments. Developing such software frameworks is increasingly a major scientific activity in its own right, and comes with specific challenges, from practical software design, development and engineering challenges to statistical and conceptual modelling challenges. BEAST 2 is one such computational software platform, and was first announced over 4 years ago. Here we describe a series of major new developments in the BEAST 2 core platform and model hierarchy that have occurred since the first release of the software, culminating in the recent 2.5 release.