Obtaining accurate binding free energies from in silico screens has been a long-standing goal for the computational chemistry community. However, accuracy and computational cost are at odds with one another, limiting the utility of methods that perform this type of calculation. Many methods achieve massive scale by explicitly or implicitly assuming that the target protein adopts a single structure, or undergoes limited fluctuations around that structure, to minimize computational cost. Others simulate each protein-ligand complex of interest, accepting lower throughput in exchange for better predictions of binding affinities. Here, we present the PopShift framework for accounting for the ensemble of structures a protein adopts and their relative probabilities. Protein degrees of freedom are enumerated once, and then arbitrarily many molecules can be screened against this ensemble. Specifically, we use Markov state models (MSMs) as a compressed representation of a proteins thermodynamic ensemble. We start with a ligand-free MSM and then calculate how addition of a ligand shifts the populations of each protein conformational state based on the strength of the interaction between that protein conformation and the ligand. In this work we use docking to estimate the affinity between a given protein structure and ligand, but any estimator of binding affinities could be used in the PopShift framework. We test PopShift on the classic benchmark pocket T4 Lysozyme L99A. We find that PopShift is more accurate than common strategies, such as docking to a single structure and traditional ensemble docking─producing results that compare favorably with alchemical binding free energy calculations in terms of RMSE but not correlation─and may have a more favorable computational cost profile in some applications. In addition to predicting binding free energies and ligand poses, PopShift also provides insight into how the probability of different protein structures is shifted upon addition of various concentrations of ligand, providing a platform for predicting affinities and allosteric effects of ligand binding. Therefore, we expect PopShift will be valuable for hit finding and for providing insight into phenomena like allostery.

Part of early stage drug discovery involves determining how molecules may bind to the target protein. Through understanding where and how molecules bind, chemists can begin to build ideas on how to design improvements to increase binding affinities. In this retrospective study, we compare how computational approaches like docking, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a non-equilibrium candidate Monte Carlo (NCMC)-based method (NCMC + MD) perform in predicting binding modes for a set of 12 fragment-like molecules, which bind to soluble epoxide hydrolase. We evaluate each method's effectiveness in identifying the dominant binding mode and finding additional binding modes (if any). Then, we compare our predicted binding modes to experimentally obtained X-ray crystal structures. We dock each of the 12 small molecules into the apo-protein crystal structure and then run simulations up to 1 μs each. Small and fragment-like molecules likely have smaller energy barriers separating different binding modes by virtue of relatively fewer and weaker interactions relative to drug-like molecules and thus likely undergo more rapid binding mode transitions. We expect, thus, to see more rapid transitions between binding modes in our study. Following this, we build Markov State Models to define our stable ligand binding modes. We investigate if adequate sampling of ligand binding modes and transitions between them can occur at the microsecond timescale using traditional MD or a hybrid NCMC+MD simulation approach. Our findings suggest that even with small fragment-like molecules, we fail to sample all the crystallographic binding modes using microsecond MD simulations, but using NCMC+MD, we have better success in sampling the crystal structure while obtaining the correct populations.

X-ray crystallography is the gold standard to resolve conformational ensembles that are significant for protein function, ligand discovery, and computational methods development. However, relevant conformational states may be missed at common cryogenic (cryo) data-collection temperatures but can be populated at room temperature. To assess the impact of temperature on making structural and computational discoveries, we systematically investigated protein conformational changes in response to temperature and ligand binding in a structural and computational workhorse, the T4 lysozyme L99A cavity. Despite decades of work on this protein, shifting to RT reveals new global and local structural changes. These include uncovering an apo helix conformation that is hidden at cryo but relevant for ligand binding, and altered side chain and ligand conformations. To evaluate the impact of temperature-induced protein and ligand changes on the utility of structural information in computation, we evaluated how temperature can mislead computational methods that employ cryo structures for validation. We find that when comparing simulated structures just to experimental cryo structures, hidden successes and failures often go unnoticed. When using structural information in ligand binding predictions, both coarse docking and rigorous binding free energy calculations are influenced by temperature effects. The trend that cryo artifacts limit the utility of structures for computation holds across five distinct protein classes. Our results suggest caution when consulting cryogenic structural data alone, as temperature artifacts can conceal errors and prevent successful computational predictions, which can mislead the development and application of computational methods in discovering bioactive molecules.