The speed at which tropical cyclones travel has slowed globally in the past seven decades, especially over some coastlines. This effect can compound flooding by increasing regional total rainfall from storms.

Generations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models have been plagued by persistent warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the southeastern tropical Atlantic. The SST biases are most severe in the eastern boundary coastal upwelling region and are sensitive to surface wind stress and wind stress curl associated with the Benguela low-level coastal jet (BLLCJ), a southerly jet parallel to the Angola-Namibia coast. However, little has been documented about this atmospheric source of oceanic bias. Here we investigate the characteristics and dynamics of the BLLCJ using observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations. Satellite wind products and high-resolution reanalyses and models represent the BLLCJ with two near-shore maxima, one near the Angola-Benguela front (ABF) at 17.5°S, and the other near 25–27.5°S, whereas coarse resolution reanalyses and models represent the BLLCJ poorly with a single, broad, more offshore maximum. Model experiments indicate that convex coastal geometry near the ABF supports the preferred location of the BLLCJ northern maximum by supporting conditions for a hydraulic expansion fan. Intraseasonal variability of the BLLCJ is associated with large-scale variability in intensity and location of the South Atlantic subtropical high through modulation of the low-level zonal pressure gradient.

We show that the well-known failure of any single index to capture the diversity and extremes of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results from the inability of existing indices to uniquely characterize the average longitude of deep convection in the Walker Circulation. We present a simple sea surface temperature (SST)-based index of this longitude that compactly characterizes the different spatial patterns, or flavors of observed and projected ENSO events. It recovers the familiar global responses of temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclones to ENSO and identifies historical extreme El Niño events. Despite its simplicity, the new longitude index describes the nonlinear relationship between the first two principal components of SST, and unlike previous indices, accounts for background SST changes associated with the seasonal cycle and climate change. The index reveals that extreme El Niño, El Niño Modoki, and La Niña events are projected to become more frequent in the future at the expense of neutral ENSO conditions.

Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is strongly linked with African easterly waves (AEWs) on the synoptic time scale. However, the TC-AEW relationship is unclear on interannual to climate time scales, and it is unknown whether AEWs are necessary to maintain climatological TC frequency, that is, whether TCs are limited by AEWs. We investigated the impact of AEW suppression on seasonal Atlantic TC activity using a 10-member ensemble of regional climate model simulations in which AEWs were either prescribed or removed through the lateral boundary condition. The climate model experiments produced no significant change in seasonal Atlantic TC number, indicating that AEWs are not necessary to maintain climatological basin-wide TC frequency even though TCs readily originate from these types of disturbances. This suggests that the specific type of “seedling” disturbance is unimportant for determining basin-wide seasonal Atlantic TC number and that in the absence of AEWs, TCs will generate by other mechanisms. The results imply that changes in the presence of AEWs may not be reliable predictors of seasonal variability and future change in Atlantic TC frequency.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation, the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, strongly influences tropical cyclone activity. During canonical El Nino, the warm phase, Atlantic tropical cyclones are suppressed. However, the past decades have witnessed different El Nino characteristics, ranging from warming over the east Pacific cold tongue in canonical events to warming near the warm pool, known as warm pool El Nino or central Pacific El Nino. Global climate models project possible future increases in intensity of warm pool El Nino. Here we use a climate model at a resolution sufficient to explicitly simulate tropical cyclones to investigate how these flavours of El Nino may affect such cyclones. We show that Atlantic tropical cyclones are suppressed regardless of El Nino type. For the warmest 10% of each El Nino flavour, warm pool El Nino is substantially less effective at suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclones than cold tongue El Nino. However, for the same absolute warming intensity, the opposite is true. This is because less warming is required near the warm pool to satisfy the sea surface temperature threshold for deep convection, which leads to tropical cyclone suppression through vertical wind shear enhancements. We conclude that an understanding of future changes in not only location, but also intensity and frequency, of El Nino is important for forecasts and projections of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was the strongest Pacific hurricane to make landfall in Mexico. Although Patricia fortuitously spared major cities, it reminded us of the threat tropical cyclones (TCs) pose in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) and the importance of improving our understanding and prediction of ENP TCs. Patricia's intensity and the active 2015 ENP hurricane season have been partially attributed to the strong El Niño in 2015, however there is still a lack of fundamental understanding of the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENP TCs. Here, we demonstrate that ENSO drives intrabasin variability of ENP TCs, with enhanced (reduced) TC frequency in the western portion of the ENP during El Niño (La Niña), but reduced (enhanced) TC frequency in the eastern nearshore area, where landfalling TCs preferentially form. This intrabasin difference is primarily driven by the Central American Gap Winds (CAGW), which intensify (weaken) during El Niño (La Niña), producing low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) relative vorticity anomalies and thus an unfavorable (favorable) environment for TC genesis. These findings shed new light on the dynamics linking ENP TC activity to ENSO, and highlight the importance of improving CAGW representation in models to make skillful seasonal forecasts of ENP TCs.

The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state-of-the-art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical-subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño-like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña-like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low-level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) predictability in both local and remote ocean basins. Unusually warm eastern-central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during El Niño tends to enhance eastern and central North Pacific (ECNP) TCs and suppress Atlantic TCs. Here we demonstrate that Atlantic SST variability likewise influences remote TC activity in the eastern-central Pacific through a Walker Circulation-type response analogous to the ENSO-Atlantic TC teleconnection, using observations and 27 km resolution tropical channel model (TCM) simulations. Observed and simulated ECNP TC activity is reduced during the positive Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), which is characterized by warm northern and cool southern tropical Atlantic SST anomalies, and vice versa during the negative AMM. Large ensembles of TCM simulations indicate that SST variability, rather than internal atmospheric variability, drives extreme ECNP hurricane seasons.

It is well established that African easterly waves (AEWs) can serve as seedling disturbances for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). However, research has shown that AEWs are not necessary to maintain specifically basin-wide TC frequency. Here, we for the first time investigate the effects of AEW suppression by wave track on Atlantic TC activity. Regional model simulations were performed, where AEWs were either prescribed or suppressed from the eastern lateral boundary condition. We found that without AEWs, there was an increase in TC frequency and strength, with the most pronounced increases occurring when the waves were suppressed in the south track. These changes coincided with more favorable environmental conditions and disturbances associated with increased convective activity over the Atlantic. Our results indicate that AEWs are not a limiting factor for TCs, and that AEW suppression, specifically in the south track, can affect the large-scale environment to enhance favorability for TC genesis.

There is no consensus on whether climate change has yet affected the statistics of tropical cyclones, owing to their large natural variability and the limited period of consistent observations. In addition, projections of future tropical cyclone activity are uncertain, because they often rely on coarse-resolution climate models that parameterize convection and hence have difficulty in directly representing tropical cyclones. Here we used convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate whether and how recent destructive tropical cyclones would change if these events had occurred in pre-industrial and in future climates. We found that, relative to pre-industrial conditions, climate change so far has enhanced the average and extreme rainfall of hurricanes Katrina, Irma and Maria, but did not change tropical cyclone wind-speed intensity. In addition, future anthropogenic warming would robustly increase the wind speed and rainfall of 11 of 13 intense tropical cyclones (of 15 events sampled globally). Additional regional climate model simulations suggest that convective parameterization introduces minimal uncertainty into the sign of projected changes in tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall, which allows us to have confidence in projections from global models with parameterized convection and resolution fine enough to include tropical cyclones.