Swine populations are known to be an important source of new human strains of influenza A, including those responsible for global pandemics. Yet our knowledge of the epidemiology of influenza in swine is dismayingly poor, as highlighted by the emergence of the 2009 pandemic strain and the paucity of data describing its origins. Here, we analyse a unique dataset arising from surveillance of swine influenza at a Hong Kong abattoir from 1998 to 2010. We introduce a state-space model that estimates disease exposure histories by joint inference from multiple modes of surveillance, integrating both virological and serological data. We find that an observed decrease in virus isolation rates is not due to a reduction in the regional prevalence of influenza. Instead, a more likely explanation is increased infection of swine in production farms, creating greater immunity to disease early in life. Consistent with this, we find that the weekly risk of exposure on farms equals or exceeds the exposure risk during transport to slaughter. We discuss potential causes for these patterns, including competition between influenza strains and shifts in the Chinese pork industry, and suggest opportunities to improve knowledge and reduce prevalence of influenza in the region.

Influenza can cause acute lung injury. Because immune responses often play a role, antivirals may not ensure a successful outcome. To identify pathogenic mechanisms and potential adjunctive therapeutic options, we compared the extent to which avian influenza A/H5N1 virus and seasonal influenza A/H1N1 virus impair alveolar fluid clearance and protein permeability in an in vitro model of acute lung injury, defined the role of virus-induced soluble mediators in these injury effects, and demonstrated that the effects are prevented or reduced by bone marrow-derived multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells. We verified the in vivo relevance of these findings in mice experimentally infected with influenza A/H5N1. We found that, in vitro, the alveolar epithelium's protein permeability and fluid clearance were dysregulated by soluble immune mediators released upon infection with avian (A/Hong Kong/483/97, H5N1) but not seasonal (A/Hong Kong/54/98, H1N1) influenza virus. The reduced alveolar fluid transport associated with down-regulation of sodium and chloride transporters was prevented or reduced by coculture with mesenchymal stromal cells. In vivo, treatment of aged H5N1-infected mice with mesenchymal stromal cells increased their likelihood of survival. We conclude that mesenchymal stromal cells significantly reduce the impairment of alveolar fluid clearance induced by A/H5N1 infection in vitro and prevent or reduce A/H5N1-associated acute lung injury in vivo. This potential adjunctive therapy for severe influenza-induced lung disease warrants rapid clinical investigation.