Earthquakes present worldwide risk to economic and human safety. The 2023 earthquakes in Turkiye provided a reminder of the potential for catastrophic consequences with 50,700 deaths and 15.7 million people affected. The ability to predict ground motions and infrastructure damage for earthquakes continues to be a challenging problem for scientists and engineers. Until now, estimates of ground motions have been performed empirically by looking at sparse data from past earthquakes. This approach can provide statistical information on intensity amplitudes but cannot inform site-specific ground motions essential to developing the most effective resilience. Interest has grown in large-scale computational models to simulate earthquakes at regional scale. The U.S. Department of Energy EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework was developed for regional-scale earthquake simulations at unprecedented fidelity, taking advantage of emerging GPU-accelerated systems. This article describes the EQSIM workflow and demonstrates regional-scale simulations with the new computational capability available to scientists in their quest to mitigate future disasters.

Computational simulations have become central to the seismic analysis and design of major infrastructure over the past several decades. Most major structures are now “proof tested” virtually through representative simulations of earthquake-induced response. More recently, with the advancement of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms and the associated massively parallel computational ecosystems, simulation is beginning to play a role in increased understanding and prediction of ground motions for earthquake hazard assessments. However, the computational requirements for regional-scale geophysics-based ground motion simulations are extreme, which has restricted the frequency resolution of direct simulations and limited the ability to perform the large number of simulations required to numerically explore the problem parametric space. In this article, recent developments toward an integrated, multidisciplinary earth science-engineering computational framework for the regional-scale simulation of both ground motions and resulting structural response are described with a particular emphasis on advancing simulations to frequencies relevant to engineered systems. This multidisciplinary computational development is being carried out as part of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project with the goal of achieving a computational framework poised to exploit emerging DOE exaflop computer platforms scheduled for the 2022–2023 timeframe.