Myocardial interstitial fibrosis is associated with cardiovascular disease and adverse prognosis. Here, to investigate the biological pathways that underlie fibrosis in the human heart, we developed a machine learning model to measure native myocardial T1 time, a marker of myocardial fibrosis, in 41,505 UK Biobank participants who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. Greater T1 time was associated with diabetes mellitus, renal disease, aortic stenosis, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, conduction disease and rheumatoid arthritis. Genome-wide association analysis identified 11 independent loci associated with T1 time. The identified loci implicated genes involved in glucose transport (SLC2A12), iron homeostasis (HFE, TMPRSS6), tissue repair (ADAMTSL1, VEGFC), oxidative stress (SOD2), cardiac hypertrophy (MYH7B) and calcium signaling (CAMK2D). Using a transforming growth factor β1-mediated cardiac fibroblast activation assay, we found that 9 of the 11 loci consisted of genes that exhibited temporal changes in expression or open chromatin conformation supporting their biological relevance to myofibroblast cell state acquisition. By harnessing machine learning to perform large-scale quantification of myocardial interstitial fibrosis using cardiac imaging, we validate associations between cardiac fibrosis and disease, and identify new biologically relevant pathways underlying fibrosis.

Increased left atrial volume and decreased left atrial function have long been associated with atrial fibrillation. The availability of large-scale cardiac magnetic resonance imaging data paired with genetic data provides a unique opportunity to assess the genetic contributions to left atrial structure and function, and understand their relationship with risk for atrial fibrillation. Here, we use deep learning and surface reconstruction models to measure left atrial minimum volume, maximum volume, stroke volume, and emptying fraction in 40,558 UK Biobank participants. In a genome-wide association study of 35,049 participants without pre-existing cardiovascular disease, we identify 20 common genetic loci associated with left atrial structure and function. We find that polygenic contributions to increased left atrial volume are associated with atrial fibrillation and its downstream consequences, including stroke. Through Mendelian randomization, we find evidence supporting a causal role for left atrial enlargement and dysfunction on atrial fibrillation risk.

BACKGROUND: Absence of a dicrotic notch on finger photoplethysmography is an easily ascertainable and inexpensive trait that has been associated with age and prevalent cardiovascular disease. However, the trait exists along a continuum, and little is known about its genetic underpinnings or prognostic value for incident cardiovascular disease. METHODS: In 169 787 participants in the UK Biobank, we identified absent dicrotic notch on photoplethysmography and created a novel continuous trait reflecting notch smoothness using machine learning. Next, we determined the heritability, genetic basis, polygenic risk, and clinical relations for the binary absent notch trait and the newly derived continuous notch smoothness trait. RESULTS: Heritability of the continuous notch smoothness trait was 7.5%, compared with 5.6% for the binary absent notch trait. A genome-wide association study of notch smoothness identified 15 significant loci, implicating genes including NT5C2 (P=1.2×10-26), IGFBP3 (P=4.8×10-18), and PHACTR1 (P=1.4×10-13), compared with 6 loci for the binary absent notch trait. Notch smoothness stratified risk of incident myocardial infarction or coronary artery disease, stroke, heart failure, and aortic stenosis. A polygenic risk score for notch smoothness was associated with incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause death in UK Biobank participants without available photoplethysmography data. CONCLUSIONS: We found that a machine learning derived continuous trait reflecting dicrotic notch smoothness on photoplethysmography was heritable and associated with genes involved in vascular stiffness. Greater notch smoothness was associated with greater risk of incident cardiovascular disease. Raw digital phenotyping may identify individuals at risk for disease via specific genetic pathways.

BACKGROUND: As the largest conduit vessel, the aorta is responsible for the conversion of phasic systolic inflow from ventricular ejection into more continuous peripheral blood delivery. Systolic distention and diastolic recoil conserve energy and are enabled by the specialized composition of the aortic extracellular matrix. Aortic distensibility decreases with age and vascular disease. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we sought to discover epidemiologic correlates and genetic determinants of aortic distensibility and strain. METHODS: We trained a deep learning model to quantify thoracic aortic area throughout the cardiac cycle from cardiac magnetic resonance images and calculated aortic distensibility and strain in 42,342 UK Biobank participants. RESULTS: Descending aortic distensibility was inversely associated with future incidence of cardiovascular diseases, such as stroke (HR: 0.59 per SD; P = 0.00031). The heritabilities of aortic distensibility and strain were 22% to 25% and 30% to 33%, respectively. Common variant analyses identified 12 and 26 loci for ascending and 11 and 21 loci for descending aortic distensibility and strain, respectively. Of the newly identified loci, 22 were not significantly associated with thoracic aortic diameter. Nearby genes were involved in elastogenesis and atherosclerosis. Aortic strain and distensibility polygenic scores had modest effect sizes for predicting cardiovascular outcomes (delaying or accelerating disease onset by 2%-18% per SD change in scores) and remained statistically significant predictors after accounting for aortic diameter polygenic scores. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic determinants of aortic function influence risk for stroke and coronary artery disease and may lead to novel targets for medical intervention.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence (AI) models applied to 12-lead ECG waveforms can predict atrial fibrillation (AF), a heritable and morbid arrhythmia. However, the factors forming the basis of risk predictions from AI models are usually not well understood. We hypothesized that there might be a genetic basis for an AI algorithm for predicting the 5-year risk of new-onset AF using 12-lead ECGs (ECG-AI)-based risk estimates. METHODS: We applied a validated ECG-AI model for predicting incident AF to ECGs from 39 986 UK Biobank participants without AF. We then performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of the predicted AF risk and compared it with an AF GWAS and a GWAS of risk estimates from a clinical variable model. RESULTS: In the ECG-AI GWAS, we identified 3 signals (P<5×10-8) at established AF susceptibility loci marked by the sarcomeric gene TTN and sodium channel genes SCN5A and SCN10A. We also identified 2 novel loci near the genes VGLL2 and EXT1. In contrast, the clinical variable model prediction GWAS indicated a different genetic profile. In genetic correlation analysis, the prediction from the ECG-AI model was estimated to have a higher correlation with AF than that from the clinical variable model. CONCLUSIONS: Predicted AF risk from an ECG-AI model is influenced by genetic variation implicating sarcomeric, ion channel and body height pathways. ECG-AI models may identify individuals at risk for disease via specific biological pathways.

Left ventricular mass is a risk marker for cardiovascular events, and may indicate an underlying cardiomyopathy. Cardiac magnetic resonance is the gold-standard for left ventricular mass estimation, but is challenging to obtain at scale. Here, we use deep learning to enable genome-wide association study of cardiac magnetic resonance-derived left ventricular mass indexed to body surface area within 43,230 UK Biobank participants. We identify 12 genome-wide associations (1 known at TTN and 11 novel for left ventricular mass), implicating genes previously associated with cardiac contractility and cardiomyopathy. Cardiac magnetic resonance-derived indexed left ventricular mass is associated with incident dilated and hypertrophic cardiomyopathies, and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implant. An indexed left ventricular mass polygenic risk score ≥90^th percentile is also associated with incident implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implant in separate UK Biobank (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% CI 1.05-1.44) and Mass General Brigham (hazard ratio 1.75, 95% CI 1.12-2.74) samples. Here, we perform a genome-wide association study of cardiac magnetic resonance-derived indexed left ventricular mass to identify 11 novel variants and demonstrate that cardiac magnetic resonance-derived and genetically predicted indexed left ventricular mass are associated with incident cardiomyopathy.

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is an important cause of heart failure and the leading indication for heart transplantation. Many rare genetic variants have been associated with DCM, but common variant studies of the disease have yielded few associated loci. As structural changes in the heart are a defining feature of DCM, we report a genome-wide association study of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived left ventricular measurements in 36,041 UK Biobank participants, with replication in 2184 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. We identify 45 previously unreported loci associated with cardiac structure and function, many near well-established genes for Mendelian cardiomyopathies. A polygenic score of MRI-derived left ventricular end systolic volume strongly associates with incident DCM in the general population. Even among carriers of TTN truncating mutations, this polygenic score influences the size and function of the human heart. These results further implicate common genetic polymorphisms in the pathogenesis of DCM.

Excess liver fat, called hepatic steatosis, is a leading risk factor for end-stage liver disease and cardiometabolic diseases but often remains undiagnosed in clinical practice because of the need for direct imaging assessments. We developed an abdominal MRI-based machine-learning algorithm to accurately estimate liver fat (correlation coefficients, 0.97-0.99) from a truth dataset of 4,511 middle-aged UK Biobank participants, enabling quantification in 32,192 additional individuals. 17% of participants had predicted liver fat levels indicative of steatosis, and liver fat could not have been reliably estimated based on clinical factors such as BMI. A genome-wide association study of common genetic variants and liver fat replicated three known associations and identified five newly associated variants in or near the MTARC1, ADH1B, TRIB1, GPAM, and MAST3 genes (p < 3 × 10^-8). A polygenic score integrating these eight genetic variants was strongly associated with future risk of chronic liver disease (hazard ratio > 1.32 per SD score, p < 9 × 10^-17). Rare inactivating variants in the APOB or MTTP genes were identified in 0.8% of individuals with steatosis and conferred more than 6-fold risk (p < 2 × 10^-5), highlighting a molecular subtype of hepatic steatosis characterized by defective secretion of apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins. We demonstrate that our imaging-based machine-learning model accurately estimates liver fat and may be useful in epidemiological and genetic studies of hepatic steatosis.

Excess accumulation of liver fat – termed hepatic steatosis when fat accounts for > 5.5% of liver content – is a leading risk factor for end-stage liver disease and is strongly associated with important cardiometabolic disorders. Using a truth dataset of 4,511 UK Biobank participants with liver fat previously quantified via abdominal MRI imaging, we developed a machine learning algorithm to quantify liver fat with correlation coefficients of 0.97 and 0.99 in hold-out testing datasets and applied this algorithm to raw imaging data from an additional 32,192 participants. Among all 36,703 individuals with abdominal MRI imaging, median liver fat was 2.2%, with 6,250 (17%) meeting criteria for hepatic steatosis. Although individuals afflicted with hepatic steatosis were more likely to have been diagnosed with conditions such as obesity or diabetes, a prediction model based on clinical data alone without imaging could not reliably estimate liver fat content. To identify genetic drivers of variation in liver fat, we first conducted a common variant association study of 9.8 million variants, confirming three known associations for variants in the TM6SF2, APOE , and PNPLA3 genes and identifying five new variants associated with increased hepatic fat in or near the MARC1, ADH1B, TRIB1, GPAM and MAST3 genes. A polygenic score that integrated information from each of these eight variants was strongly associated with future clinical diagnosis of liver diseases. Next, we performed a rare variant association study in a subset of 11,021 participants with gene sequencing data available, identifying an association between inactivating variants in the APOB gene and substantially lower LDL cholesterol, but more than 10-fold increased risk of steatosis. Taken together, these results provide proof of principle for the use of machine learning algorithms on raw imaging data to enable epidemiologic studies and genetic discovery.

Background

Sudden cardiac death occurs in ∼220,000 U.S. adults annually, the majority of whom have no prior symptoms or cardiovascular diagnosis. Rare pathogenic DNA variants in any of 49 genes can pre-dispose to 4 important causes of sudden cardiac death: cardiomyopathy, coronary artery disease, inherited arrhythmia syndrome, and aortopathy or aortic dissection.

Objectives

This study assessed the prevalence of rare pathogenic variants in sudden cardiac death cases versus controls, and the prevalence and clinical importance of such mutations in an asymptomatic adult population.

Methods

The authors performed whole-exome sequencing in a case-control cohort of 600 adult-onset sudden cardiac death cases and 600 matched controls from 106,098 participants of 6 prospective cohort studies. Observed DNA sequence variants in any of 49 genes with known association to cardiovascular disease were classified as pathogenic or likely pathogenic by a clinical laboratory geneticist blinded to case status. In an independent population of 4,525 asymptomatic adult participants of a prospective cohort study, the authors performed whole-genome sequencing and determined the prevalence of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants and prospective association with cardiovascular death.

Results

Among the 1,200 sudden cardiac death cases and controls, the authors identified 5,178 genetic variants and classified 14 as pathogenic or likely pathogenic. These 14 variants were present in 15 individuals, all of whom had experienced sudden cardiac death-corresponding to a pathogenic variant prevalence of 2.5% in cases and 0% in controls (p < 0.0001). Among the 4,525 participants of the prospective cohort study, 41 (0.9%) carried a pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant and these individuals had 3.24-fold higher risk of cardiovascular death over a median follow-up of 14.3 years (p = 0.02).

Conclusions

Gene sequencing identifies a pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant in a small but potentially important subset of adults experiencing sudden cardiac death; these variants are present in ∼1% of asymptomatic adults.