Forming predictions about what will happen next in the world happens early in development, without instruction, and across species. Some environments support more accurate predictions. These more predictable environments also support what appear to be positive developmental trajectories, including increases in cognitive control over thoughts and actions. Such consequences of predictable environments have broad-reaching implications for society and have been explained across ecological, psychological, computational, and neural frameworks. However, many challenges remain in understanding the effects of environmental predictability, including adaptive responses to unpredictable environments and the mechanisms underlying the effects of predictable environments on developmental trajectories. Future work addressing different dimensions of predictability -- across time scales, locations, actions, people, and outcomes -- and their interactions will advance the ability to understand, predict, and support developmental trajectories.

Background

Fragile X premutation carriers (55-200 CGG triplets) may develop a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, fragile X-associated tremor/ataxia syndrome (FXTAS), after the age of 50. The neuroradiologic markers of FXTAS are hyperintense T2-signals in the middle cerebellar peduncle-the MCP sign. We recently noticed abnormal T2-signals in the globus pallidus in male premutation carriers and controls but the prevalence and clinical significance were unknown.

Methods

We estimated the prevalence of the MCP sign and pallidal T2-abnormalities in 230 male premutation carriers and 144 controls (aged 8-86), and examined the associations with FXTAS symptoms, CGG repeat length, and iron content in the cerebellar dentate nucleus and globus pallidus.

Results

Among participants aged ≥45 years (175 premutation carriers and 82 controls), MCP sign was observed only in premutation carriers (52 vs. 0%) whereas the prevalence of pallidal T2-abnormalities approached significance in premutation carriers compared with controls after age-adjustment (25.1 vs. 13.4%, p = 0.069). MCP sign was associated with impaired motor and executive functioning, and the additional presence of pallidal T2-abnormalities was associated with greater impaired executive functioning. Among premutation carriers, significant iron accumulation was observed in the dentate nucleus, and neither pallidal or MCP T2-abnormalities affected measures of the dentate nucleus. While the MCP sign was associated with CGG repeat length >75 and dentate nucleus volume correlated negatively with CGG repeat length, pallidal T2-abnormalities did not correlate with CGG repeat length. However, pallidal signal changes were associated with age-related accelerated iron depletion and variability and having both MCP and pallidal signs further increased iron variability in the globus pallidus.

Conclusions

Only the MCP sign, not pallidal abnormalities, revealed independent associations with motor and cognitive impairment; however, the occurrence of combined MCP and pallidal T2-abnormalities may present a risk for greater cognitive impairment and increased iron variability in the globus pallidus.