Objective

To identify the predictors of time from initial diagnosis of metastatic castration-resistance prostate cancer (mCRPC) to all-cause death within the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital cohort.

Patients and methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of 205 mCRPC men. Overall survival was estimated and plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method. The uni- and multivariable overall survival predictors were evaluated with the Cox proportional hazards model. A nomogram was generated to predict overall survival at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years after mCRPC. Concordance index and calibration plot were obtained.

Results

A total of 170 men (83%) died over a median follow-up of 41 months. In univariable analysis, older age, more remote year of mCRPC, nonblack race, greater number of bone metastasis, higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, shorter PSA doubling time, and faster PSA velocity at mCRPC diagnosis were significantly associated with shorter overall survival (all P < .05). In multivariable analysis, older age, more remote year of mCRPC, greater number of bone metastasis, higher PSA levels, and shorter PSA doubling time at mCRPC diagnosis remained significantly associated with shorter overall survival (all P < .05). On the basis of these variables, a nomogram was generated yielding a concordance index of 0.67 and good calibration.

Conclusion

The use of clinical parameter such as age, disease burden, and PSA levels and kinetics can be used to estimate overall survival in mCRPC patients.

Purpose

We investigated imaging practice patterns in men with nonmetastatic (M0) castration resistant prostate cancer.

Materials and methods

We analyzed data on 247 patients with documented M0 CRPC from the SEARCH database. Patients were selected regardless of primary treatment modality and all had a negative bone scan after a castration resistant prostate cancer diagnosis. Cox models were used to test associations of time to a second imaging test with several demographic and clinical factors.

Results

During a median followup of 29.0 months (IQR 12.9-43.5) after a post-castration resistant prostate cancer bone scan was negative, 190 patients (77%) underwent a second imaging test. On univariable analysis patients with higher prostate specific antigen (HR 1.13, p = 0.016), shorter prostate specific antigen doubling time (HR 0.79, p < 0.001) and faster prostate specific antigen velocity (HR 1.01, p < 0.001) were more likely to undergo a second imaging test. Treatment center was also a significant predictor of a second imaging test (p = 0.010). No other factor was a significant predictor. Results were similar on multivariable analysis. It was estimated that approximately 20% of men with a prostate specific antigen doubling time of less than 3 months did not undergo an imaging test in the first year after a post-castration resistant prostate cancer negative bone scan. However, 50% of patients with prostate specific antigen doubling time 15 months or greater underwent a second imaging test in the first year.

Conclusions

Clinicians use some known predictors of positive imaging tests to determine which patients with M0 castration resistant prostate cancer undergo a second imaging test . However, there may be under imaging in those at high risk and over imaging in those at low risk. Further studies are needed to identify risk factors for metastasis and form clear imaging guidelines in patients with M0 castration resistant prostate cancer.