Background

Although combination antiretroviral therapy reduced the prevalence of HIV-associated dementia, milder syndromes persist. Our goals were to predict cognitive impairment of the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) participants 5 years ahead and from a large pool of factors, select the ones that mostly contributed to our predictions.

Design

Longitudinal, natural and treated history of HIV infection among MSM.

Methods

The MACS is a longitudinal study of the natural and treated history of HIV disease in MSM; the neuropsychological substudy aims to characterize cognitive disorders in men with HIV disease.

Results

We modeled on an annual basis the risk of cognitive impairment 5 years in the future. We were able to predict cognitive impairment at individual level with high precision and overperform default methods. We found that while a diagnosis of AIDS is a critical risk factor, HIV infection per se does not necessarily convey additional risk. Other infectious processes, most notably hepatitis B and C, are independently associated with increased risk of impairment. The relative importance of an AIDS diagnosis diminished across calendar time.

Conclusion

Our prediction models are a powerful tool to help clinicians address dementia in early stages for MACS paticipants. The strongest predictors of future cognitive impairment included the presence of clinical AIDS and hepatitis B or C infection. The fact that the pattern of predictive power differs by calendar year suggests a clinically critical change to the face of the epidemic.

Objective

To determine whether combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation alters the trajectory of cognitive performance in HIV+ men, and whether cognition prior to cART predicts postcART function.

Design

Longitudinal cohort study. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

Methods

From an initial set of 3701 men with complete neuropsychological data, men with HIV infection were initially matched with men without infection on cognitive status, race, age, and timeline (T0 defined as cART initiation). Propensity score matching was then used to match pairs on depressive symptoms at T0, education, T0 cognitive scores, and recruitment cohort. There were 506 matched pairs of infected and uninfected men in the final analysis. Mixed effect models were constructed to analyze the trajectories of cognitive functions and to test the effect of cART and HIV on cognitive functions over time.

Results

Performance in each cognitive domain did not change following the initiation of cART among HIV-infected men with prior impairment and was comparable to the performance of their matched uninfected men. However, among the infected men who were unimpaired prior to cART, motor function declined significantly faster than it did for uninfected controls.

Conclusions

Cognitive dysfunction is persistent in HIV-infected men and cART does not alter the trajectory of cognitive decline in men who were impaired prior to effective therapy. This suggests that current cognitive impairment in HIV+ men results from a legacy effect, and from factors other than the HIV itself. Furthermore, motor skills may be uniquely vulnerable to the virus, cART, or age-related co-morbidities.