Background

Rising incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people with HIV (PWH) in San Diego County (SDC) was reported. In 2018, the University of California San Diego (UCSD) launched a micro-elimination initiative among PWH, and in 2020 SDC launched an initiative to reduce HCV incidence by 80% across 2015-2030. We model the impact of observed treatment scale-up on HCV micro-elimination among PWH in SDC.

Methods

A model of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM) was calibrated to SDC. The model was additionally stratified by age, gender, and HIV status. The model was calibrated to HCV viremia prevalence among PWH in 2010, 2018, and 2021 (42.1%, 18.5%, and 8.5%, respectively), and HCV seroprevalence among PWID aged 18-39 years, MSM, and MSM with HIV in 2015. We simulate treatment among PWH, weighted by UCSD Owen Clinic (reaching 26% of HCV-infected PWH) and non-UCSD treatment, calibrated to achieve the observed HCV viremia prevalence. We simulated HCV incidence with observed and further treatment scale-up (+/- risk reductions) among PWH.

Results

Observed treatment scale-up from 2018 to 2021 will reduce HCV incidence among PWH in SDC from a mean of 429 infections/year in 2015 to 159 infections/year in 2030. County-wide scale-up to the maximum treatment rate achieved at UCSD Owen Clinic (in 2021) will reduce incidence by 69%, missing the 80% incidence reduction target by 2030 unless accompanied by behavioral risk reductions.

Conclusions

As SDC progresses toward HCV micro-elimination among PWH, a comprehensive treatment and risk reduction approach is necessary to reach 2030 targets.